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Published on Friday, 28 July 2017 16:01

Clasica San Sebastian 2017

San Sebastian, Spain

Sat July 29th, 231kms

The Donostia-Donostia Klasikoa, or Clasica Cycliste San Sebastian as it's known to us non-Basques, takes place this Saturday in it's traditional slot one week after the Tour de France climax. It is a race that I fondly remember last year, with 40/1 shot landing the win for us in fine style.

He attacked away from a small group that had crested the top of the new climb, the Murgil Bidea with a small lead, and as the chasers, which included the race favourite Valverde, Rodriguez and Gallopin looked at each other, he was powering down the hill to victory, a similar feat to what he achieved in the Tour just gone for his superb stage win.

It was a great battle on the Murgil Bidea, with Orica ripping it in to the bottom of the steep parts, then Rigo Uran attacked, Yates closed him down and attacked, Rodriguez closed him down and attacked.. It was ding-dong all the way up as riders came to the fore and fell away again, but when it was coming to the last few hundred metres, Valverde suddenly appeared, attacked and Mollema was straight on his wheel with Gallopin and Rodriguez and they crested the top together. Mollema's attack was almost stealth-like as they started the descent, he just sneaked up the shoulder of Rodriguez and rode away from them with his now-trademark descending power. Gallopin outsprinted Valverde surprisingly for 2nd place, and shortly after them came Rodriguez, Van Avermaet, Brambilla, Yates, Slagter and Roche.  

It is the 36th running of the race, so not exactly the oldest classic in the world, but has built a reputation as a tough and challenging race, favoured by climbers and puncheurs coming out of the Tour with good legs, taking on guys who missed the Tour and prepared for this specifically. There haven't been many wins recently though from riders who have not ridden the Tour, it looks like the week's recovery after three hard weeks' racing is the perfect prep for this sort of race.

It's the longest edition in the last 4 years at 231kms, longer than the longest stage of the Tour by 10kms, but the route hasn't changed much from last year, they are keeping the climb of Murgil Bidea, and it's likely once again to be the race decider. 

It is a lumpy parcours that really saps the energy and the race is usually in bits as they approach the last 50kms or so, although this year, like in the last two editions, the final ascent of the Alto de Jaizkibel is further out than it used to be in the past, they crest it with nearly 54kms still to go.

One big problem for those trying to attack on the final climb is the number of spectators on the road - they narrow the road so much it's almost impossible to actually race up it, it's just single file behind the guy at the front. So all you can hope for is that you are part of that front group that gets over the top together, or that you are solo clear of them. As Mollema showed last year, it is possible to hold off a strong chasing pack on the descent, most guys will be going as fast as they possibly can and the gaps generally hold as they are doing similar speeds. In fact, it's often advantage to the lone attacker in a situation like this as the chasers don't want to commit too much and drag a rival to the line, only to be beaten by him. 

The Route

It's a similar sort of affair to previous years, after starting in Donostia (the Basque name for San Sebastian), they head off on a loop of almost 100kms out in to the countryside where they hit the first climb, the small Cat 3 Meaga after just 37kms and the first real test, the Cat 2 Alto de Iturburu after 60kms(right). This strangely has been downgraded from a Cat 1 last year to a Cat 2, but I can see why, it could even be a Cat 3 being just 3.5kms, averaging a very steady 5%.

With 137kms gone they hit the Alto de Jaizkibel, a tough, exposed climb that drags on for around 8kms at an average of 5.6%, but with parts that hit well over 8%. We should see a thinning out on this first passage before they go down the fast and tricky descent to the base of the next challenge, the Cat 2 Alto de Arkale that comes just 23kms later. This is much shorter, but averages 6.1%, so there may be some break attempts go again here. 

Once over the Arkale it's back to the foot of the Jaizkibel for another go at it, followed again by the Arkale. Once over the Arkale for the last time there's only 31kms left and the race is at full gas at this stage. They head towards the Bordako Tontorra, the hill that was the final climb for the last two years, the hill that saw GVA knocked over by the motorbike on the small twisty roads. Last year the organisers were forced by the UCI and the security secretary to divert away from the Tontorra just as they start to climb it. Instead they go down a small descent and then start on the climb of the Murgil Bidea a new climb for the race last year. 

The Murgil Bidea is still a very hard climb of 1800m at 10.5%, with parts hitting 20% and the last 600m averaging 12.5%, hard enough to blow the race to pieces like the way the Tontorra does, but at least the road is wider. It's where the race-deciding moves came last year, with Valverde and Gallopin going and Mollema just about hanging on to their coat tails, with Yates, Slagter and Roche just off the back of them.

They then plunge down the descent towards the finish, a really fast and furious descent, a descent that if you can get a small gap on you can hold off the chasers all the way to the finish in San Sebastian. Bauke Mollema took his chance brilliantly last year, attacking just after the summit, while everyone was in the red and looking at each other to see where Valverde and Rodriguez were.  

The last 4kms are flat though, so if a small group does come off the climb together, it will probably end in a very small bunch sprint. More likely though is it will be won by a solo rider or 2 or 3 at most. 

Contenders and Favourites

I think there are different groups you can split the contenders in to for this race. First of all, guys coming off the Tour have a great record here. Then you have the guys who didn't do the Tour, but are coming here fresh and trained for this. And then you need to consider experience in this race - experience here seems to count for a lot. Even Adam Yates, who had only ridden it once previously had done brilliantly when he did ride it, that is, up until he crashed on the descent to the finish while with the leading riders. 

Let's start by looking at the guys who have just come out of the Tour and have experience of riding in the race. And top of that list has to be  Bauke Mollema again, he was brilliant at the Tour and took a dress-rehearsel stage for this on stage 15 of the Tour to Le Puy en Velay. Not only was he a superb winner here last year, but he has also finished 5th, 9th, 2nd and 6th in the four years prior to that. It will be harder for him to pull that trick again this year though, and especially after his Tour win, no team will be allowed take their eye off of him at the top of the Murgil Bidea.

And the way he was climbing in the Tour, I think he will be up there challenging. He might have company this year on the descent though if others stick to him like glue, so he will have his work cut out to take a win this year. He's 16/1 though with Bet365, no 40/1 this year, but still worth an e/w I think. 

Maybe helping him to the top of the climb, or vice-versa, will be Alberto Contador. I think there is no doubt that he would love to win this race, possibly in his last time of riding it (yeah, right) and he showed good form in the third week of the Tour to suggest he could go well here. He went extremely well in the TT on Saturday, a lot better than anyone expected I think to finish in 6th place, and his attacking was exciting to watch as always. But he has only done San Sebastian three times and his best result was 26th in 2008, and was 39th last year, those results don't give a lot of confidence, Mollema looks their best shot. 

AG2Rs best hope is probably Alexis Vuillermoz, he has the punch to maybe stay with the best guys up the final climb. He rode really well in the Tour in support of Romain Bardet, but he put a lot in to it. He seemed to be still going very strong at the finish though, his 20th in the TT was an excellent result for someone not noted for his TTing ability. He only did this race once in 2015 and he wasn't far off the pace at all in 17th place, just 5" off the big bunch of guys who fought it out for 2nd place.

It would be interesting to see how he'd have got on on this new climb last year, his 60kg frame is perfect for it, but it seems you need to have brute power as well to finish it off, the lighter guys like Yates and Brambilla were just caught for power by the top 4 guys last year. I think he'll be close to the front at the top of the climb, but whether he'll be close enough to the leaders to fight it out is another question. He's tempting at 66/1 though.

BMC are back with Greg Van Avermaet again, a man that maybe should have won it in 2015 but was knocked off his bike by an idiot moto man while leading solo on the final climb. He didn't quite have the punch last year to go with the leaders, but wasn't far behind at all cresting the summit and set off in pursuit with Dries Devenyns, and caught the Roche/Uran/Yates group on the descent and took 5th in the sprint from that little group. He has an amazing record in this race with his results reading 11th, 2nd, 13th, 18th, 8th, and 5th, he always seems to be near the front at the end of the race.

I think he is not quite as strong as he was this time last year though, he came out of the Tour with two stage victories and he was climbing extremely well. He failed to win in Rodez this year, a stage that looked nailed on for him. It is an extremely strong team of guys who are coming out of the Tour well, with Quinziato, Schar, De Marchi, Moinard, Wyss and Roche here for him - we could see them do for GVA what Orica tried to do for Yates last year, and lead it in to the hard part at a furious pace. Will he have the punch to stay with the fastest climbers here though this year? I think he's too short at 6/1.. 

And speaking of the other guys on the team, Nico Roche loves this race and has a good record in the CSS. He has finished 5th, 8th, 9th, 16th twice and 20th and was right at the front mixing it with Valverde and Mollema near the top of the climb, he was just caught for pace when Valverde surged. He finished in that quality group with GVA, Yates and Brambilla just 34" behind Mollema and only 17" behind Valverde in 3rd.

He doesn't look quite at his best either this year, but reckons he has never been slimmer and was putting out some of his best numbers before the Tour, but just couldn't get the power in his legs some days, he didn't know why. The mood isn't supposed to be great in the BMC camp, and you can see that in their results I think in the Tour. There is no faith in the DS and the management, but whatever it is, it just didn't click for him at the Tour. Hard to see him winning this with that going on, but he might podium if it falls well for him, but I'm not backing him..

Rigoberto Uran had the whole world cheering for him during the Tour, his 'fixie' stage win was incredible and he rode very strongly throughout, never looking in trouble once in the mountains, covering all the dangerous moves with ease. It was a bit disappointing to not see him try a few more attacks to stretch Froome. He seemed happy to just sit and follow wheels, but I guess he knew he was going to lose time to Froome in the final TT, but the fact he only lost 25" and not the minute plus that everyone expected him to lose may have him regretting not attacking too. 

He hasn't a bad record in this race either, finishing 8th in 2011 and 10th in 2015, and was right in the mix last year, attacking off the front on the lower slopes of the climb. He'll know better this year to wait and mark and he should go a lot closer I think, especially given how well he is going this year compared to last. He's got a good team of guys to look after him and drill it to the final climb, Talanksy, Rolland, Browne and Si Clarke have the TDF in their legs, but Hugh Carthy and Paddy Bevin come here fresh.  I think he can be one of the main protagonists Saturday and the 16/1 on him looks ok. 

Lotto Soudal have a strong looking squad here too, with a trio of guys who aquitted themselves very well in the Tour, but unfortunately came away with nothing. Tony Gallopin and Tiesj Benoot seemed to be on the attack almost as often as Thomas de Gendt. Benoot scored a number of top 20 places and finished 20th overall, an admirable result for his first Grand Tour at just 23. Gallopin rode similarly well, in fact, so similar he finished just one place behind Benoot in 21st place. He did manage a 3rd place in stage 15, but they had let Mollema go. 

Gallopin has entered this race three times - winning it the first time in 2013, then was 5th in 2014 and was 2nd last year, leading home the chase after Mollema (again, he must hate Mollema). With his pedigree in this race, with the legs he showed in the Tour (he finished an impressive 16th in the TT) and with that strong Lotto squad behind him, he has to be right up there as one of the favourites for this race again this year at 11/1. 

Orica Scott have a very strong squad here too, with Simon Yates coming out of the Tour well as the winner of the White Jersey and looking to emulate his brother who won this race in 2015. Simon was right in the mix in 2014, with the race-winning move, but came around a bend too wide and smashed in to a footpath kerb and that was the end of his race. He was 14th the year after and then last year, Orica looked very confident in him, driving hard in to the Murghil Gidea and keeping the pressure up until it started to get really steep. He tried a dash off the front, but was not able to sustain it and was caught and passed and ended up being part of the group that fought out 5th, but had to settle for 7th behind Van Avermaet and Brambilla. 

Orica have a very strong squad again this year, it looks like they will be looking to take control in to the bottom of the climb again, with strong men like Keukeleire, Juul-Jensen and Tuft pushing it, then he has Simon Gerrans, Romain Kreuziger and Michael Albasini to help try to set up an attack later on. I think with experience of this climb now in his legs he too will wait until the last possible moment, too many guys tried from too far down last year and paid the price for it, a timely late attack this year might work.

QuickStep have a very strong team here too this year, with a number of candidates who could be fighting for the win. They have Gianluca Brambilla who finished 6th here last year, he was just unable to go with Mollema's surge when he went in pursuit of Rodriguez near the top of the final climb. He had showed well up until then and finished with the Van Avermaet group. But Brambilla of 2017 just isn't the same Brambilla of 2016 , he had a poor TDF as far as I'm concerned, we barely saw that he was there.

And they also have Philippe Gilbert who was going ok in the Tour until he had to retire with illness. on stage 16. Will he have recovered on time to put in a good performance here? Is he even capable of staying with the top climbers here though up the Murgil? Well, he is a former winner of this race of course, back in 2011 when he was on another planet to everyone else for some reason, but he also finished 2nd in 2015. Those results were on different finishes though, and on this finish last year he finished way down in 58th, I don't think this is a finish for him any more really and the 10/1 is too short.

They also have David de La Cruz who continues to develop in to a top rider and has had a break for over a month in preparation for the Vuelta. He will like this tough finish, but I think he'll be working for the more senior guys. And they have Zdenek Stybar, Pieter Serry, Enric Mas, Eros Capecchi and Dries Devenyns who rode so well last year and was part of the Roche chasing group.  

And what about Team Sky? They come here with a fantastically strong team, a lot straight out of the Vuelta, where they crushed all opposition in to the ground with their blitzkrieg pace setting. Can Mikel Landa show that he is indeed the best climber in the peloton at the moment, as some seem to think? He did brilliantly in the Tour, despite being handcuffed to Froome, right after winning two stages and taking the KOM jersey at the Giro. He did finish 6th here in 2013, but his record in the race is pretty poor other than that, averaging around 63rd position. I just don't think he has the race instinct or the punch for a finish like this, he likes a longer, steadier, hard climb in which to just ride away from everyone. 

Michal Kwiatkowski is one to keep an eye on though, he looks to have the perfect sort of makeup for a potential winner of this race, being light, but more of a puncheur; being a good climber, but also a good sprinter from a small group; and coming out of the Tour with great legs. He was simply sensational in the Tour I thought, one of the men of the race as far as I was concerned, absolutely burying himself selflessly for Froome every day. He was also very humourous and was taking the piss out of his team-mates which I enjoyed.

As for his chances here? Well he's done this race twice - he DNF'ed in 2013 and was 107th last year, not a confidence-inspiring set of results. Also, he put an awful lot in to the Tour, riding himself to a standstill at one point, and to such exhaustion another time that he hadn't the energy to try to put his Oakleys somewhere, he just chucked them on the roadside. But then, as exhausted as he must have been from all that, he went out and almost pulled off the ride of his life, just missing out on the TT win in Marseille by 1 second. So he must still have something left in the legs, despite going as deep as he did for Froome. It'll be interesting to see who Sky are riding for here. But 5/1? With that past record?

Kenny Elissonde missed out on the Tour de France, but is down to ride the Vuelta and has been training for it for the last six weeks. You would think his tiny 52kg frame would be perfect to a finish like this, but as we saw last year, when he finished 48th, it is the bigger, more punchy riders who come out on top, Mollema being 12kgs heavier than him. He was only 83rd two years before that, it's hard to see him suddenly make the jump to fighting it out for the win here, unless he gets in a strong break earlier that holds on and he attacks away on the final climb. 

And they also have Philip Deignan, Mikel Nieve, David Lopez, Sergio Henao and Gianni Moscon, all top quality, talented riders. Most of them will be working for the team leaders you'd think but Lopez, Moscon, Henao or Nieve could all find themselves towards the front on the Murghil, and depending on how the race is splitting and where everyone is, they may have to go with the leaders if their team-mates are not in position. 

Team Sunweb come here on a crest of a wave, having taken the KOM and green jersey in the TDF to go with the Pink of the Giro earlier in the year. They also took four stage wins in the Tour thanks to Matthews and Barguil, and Warren Barguil comes here looking to keep his good run going. He didn't have a great race last year, like many he was caught way too far back when the race blew up, he finished in 54th in the end. But the year before he came home in that group of 16 chasing Adam Yates and took 9th on the stage.

He also has Tom Dumoulin here with him, and as strong and powerful as Dumoulin is, I fear that the really steep bits near the top will be too hard for him. Instead, I think he should be chief protector for Barguil and drag him in to position in the last few kilometres before the steep parts. If he can be in the first 20 as it kicks off he'd have a chance of going with the top climbers and could even ride away from them. A big ask on a short kick though and it's more likely we'll get a small group, of which he may find a few too good.  

After that you have other guys like Diego Ulissi of UAE, Primoz Roglic and George Bennett of LottoNL (if Bennett has recovered from his illness at the TDF), Angel Vicioso and Robert Kiserlovski of Katusha, Igor Anton or Omar Fraile of Dimension Data, Luis Leon Sanchez or Miguel Angel Lopez for Astana, Davide Arroyo of Caja Rural and Jay McCarthy of Bora. Dani Moreno looks Movistar's best chance of a result in Valverde's absence, Betancur is not on their starting list after all. Some or all of them could still be involved in the final stages, but I can't see any of them winning it. 

So when it comes to picking a winner for this race, I think my shortlist was quite long to start with, but I narrowed it down to Bauke Mollema, Tony Gallopin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Greg Van Avermaet and Rigo Uran. At the prices I'm backing Mollema and Uran each-way, but also having a little nibble at De La Cruz at 50/1 and now that Ladbrokes have gone 8/1 on Kwiatkowski as I was about to publish this, I am also going to back him as a saver, 365 are just 9/2 on him.  

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Bauke Mollema at 16/1 with PP 

0.5pts e/w on Rigo Uran at 16/1 with PP

0.25pts e/w on David De La Cruz at 50/1 with various

0.75pts e/w in Michal Kwiatkowski at 8/1 with Ladbrokes 

Matchbets:

Mollema to beat Yates - 2pts at 4/6 with 365

Kwiatkowski to beat Gilbert and Ulissi to beat Bilbao - 2pts at 5/4 with Will Hill

Dani Moreno to beat Mikel Landa - 2pts at 5/6 with Will Hill