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- Published on Wednesday, 27 January 2016 23:03
Challenge Mallorca 2016
Mallorca, Spain
28-31st January 2016
The Tour Down Under and Tour de San Luis have come and gone and have really just confirmed what we expected. The Australians dominated in the TDU, winning every one of the six stages and the overall with Simon Gerrans. Likewise in San Luis, a South American named Quintana won it, but not the one we expected!
The European cycling season curtain opener, the Playa de Palma in Mallorca is now in its 25th year and attracts a varied field across the four races as the terrain changes to suit different riders It's not a stage race of four stages, but four individual races that test the riders over varying terrain and distances, where riders can take part in some, or all of the races if they so wish. Matteo Pelucchi was the star of the show last year, winning two out of the four races.
It's a nice introduction to racing in Europe, with the weather in Mallorca generally warmer than the climes in central Europe, but is a big drop in temperatures for those who have started their season in Australia or Argentina! For most of the riders though it's the first opportunity of the season to see how their off-season training has gone and for others it's an opportunity to take advantage of their race-fit legs from the TDU and TDSL.
Starting on Thursday the 28th, the first race up is the Trofeo Felanitx - Ses Salines - Campos Porreras, the longest of the four races at nearly 177kms. The race route (and name) changes every year and this year it's a mostly clock-wise loop in the south-east of the island that takes them south to the coast at Salania de Saint Jordi and after a little loop on the west of the circuit back up to Porreras and through the finish line after 80kms. They then embark on a second loop of close to 100kms over the same circuit. It's a race that has always been won in a sprint finish, will the hill up to the finish in Porreras change that this year?
On Friday the 29th is the Trofeo Polença – Andratx, a 153km run close to the north-western coast of the island over much hillier terrain, climbing to nearly 600m a third of the way through the course. This particular course was only previously run in 2008 but has been reintroduced this year. It has an uphill finish which will suit the punchier guys more than the pure sprinters, as borne out by the top three last time around of Rojas, Visconti and Gilbert.
Saturday the 30th sees them tackle the shortest race of the week but it's the hardest day in the saddle with seven climbs and over 2,900m of climbing. It's a route comprised of two loops that sees them ride in all directions, so not only will they have the hills to contend with, but if the wind whips in off the sea we could also see echelons and splits.
Sunday the 31st sees the four days conclude with an anti-clockwise circuit north-east of Palma for the Trofeo Playa Palma de Palma, a tough, rolling circuit with the climb of the Coll des Vents which they crest with just 36kms to go. After descending down to Palma, the last 27kms or so are on a circuit around the town, so if they have managed to hang in there over the climb, it'll be fought out amongst the sprinters present.
A number of the teams, such as Etixx-QuickStep have been training in Mallorca for the last few weeks and some are going to stay on after, like Lotto-Soudal, who are preferring to stay training ahead of the Belgian Classics, than go to the Middle-East races.
I didn't do a preview for these races last year as I didn't think any bookie would price them up, and I think I am right, I can't remember prices for them.. Hopefully someone will price them up this year so the work isn't entirely wasted.. I'll watch and see how the week pans out and if they aren't pricing any of them up I don't think I'll be wasting much time writing detailed previews...! Other races in the near future will get my attention instead.
The Four Races
Trofeo Felanitx
Trofeo Felanitx – Ses Salines – Campos – Porreres
Thursday 28th January, 176.8kms
The four-day festival of racing opens with the longest of the four races, a 176.8km run around the south-eastern corner of the island, starting in Felanitx and finishing in Porreres. It's quite a lump affair and they spend the first 35kms generally descending as they head towards the coast, before turning and heading back north at Colonia de Saint Jordi after 37kms. They then embark on a little loop of 18kms before heading back north again through Campos and up the steep hill to Porreras before crossing the finish line for the first time after 80kms.
After descending for 10kms they tackle the tough climb up to the start line at Felanitx and head off on an exact same loop as they've done previously. The climb to Felanitx is hard at XX% for 5kms, but it comes with 80kms to go so it shouldn't really affect the race too much. At this point, the break of the day will probably start to lose some of the large lead they've built up as the peloton will start to pick up the pace.
The race is probably going to be decided in the last 10kms with the climb up to Felanitx, but don't rule out splits in the section down near the coast. The forecast is for light winds though at the moment, but if the north-easterly forescast picks up it will be a cross/head wind as they head towards the coast and a tail wind as they head towards the finish. The tail wind for the last 20kms or so will help with late breaks.
Contenders
It's a very different route to last year's, well at least when it comes to the start/finish area. Last year it started in Santanyi which you can see just above the 120 mark on the mark below and finished in Campos, under the 70 mark. If you imagine drawing a line from Campos to Santanyi below to make a smaller version of this years course, they did three circuits of that route to make a total of 175.5kms. So it had none of the big hills in this year's course - no pull up to the hill in Felanitx passing the start line at the start of the second circuit and no pull up to the finish line in Porreres.
Last year it was a sprint won by Matteo Pelucchi with a gaggle of top sprinters behind him, including Viviani, Bouhanni, Greipel, Coquard and Bennett. (right)
Of that lot, André Greipel and Sam Bennett are the only ones of the top ten who are back this year. That's probably down to the fact that the change in the course, with the uphill run to the finish will mean that it may not be a bunch sprint this year for a change.. With Bouhanni opting out at the last minute it certainly looks like the recon rides on the course is putting a few of them off it.
There are a number of important factors to bear in mind with these races this week. 1. teams don't confirm their actual starting lineup of 8 riders until very late on, an example of the confusing situation is that some teams, such as Great Britain and Team Roth have 15-20 riders currently on the startlist on ProCyclingStats. 2. Very few of these guys have ridden in San Luis or TDU, so no race form to go on, only training talk and historical form for January. 3. It's hard to know exactly which races they are actually targetting this week and whether a rider you think might be up for it is actually working as a domestique or just getting some race training in to find some form.
Looking at the course and looking at the lack of sprinters on the startlist, it either a) some teams believe it's not going to end in a sprint finish or b) if it does end up in a bunch gallop, the sprinters that are there will be licking their lips at the chance of an early season victory. On a rolling course like this, a strong breakaway have a chance of making it, there are some strong rouleurs here from the likes of EtixxQS, Sky, Cannondale and Lotto-Soudal. Guys like Terpstra, Wellens, Keisse, Van Baarle will like this rolling course and could fancy an early, or even a late attack inside the last 25kms.
The problem for the sprinters will be the final climb as they approach Porreres, with just 5kms to go. If the sprinters can get over that with the front group, then they will fight it out. If not, it could be anyone's race. André Greipel can sometimes take a while to fire and that hill could scupper his chances, he can sometimes struggle with a hill like that so close to the finish.
Sam Bennett on the other hand has excelled on uphill runs to the line in the past with his win in the Tour of Britain stage to Caerphilly in 2013 showed. He made some excellent progress late in the season last year, the torture he put himself through in the Tour de France stood him in good stead. He has also been saying that his winter training has been the best he's ever had so he should carry his good condition well in to the new season. He was 10th in this race last year, but came 4th in the final stage which included the ascent of the Cat 3 Coll des Vents. If he can hang in there over the final climb he has a big chance of getting Bora-Argon's year off to a great start.
Movistar have a decent team here but are not starting Valverde in this one, he's being saved for the hillier courses. Dani Moreno comes here after a nice warm up in the sun (and the wind) of San Luis, he could be one for a late attack on that hill. Giovanni Visconti or the Izagirre brothers could try a long or a late attack.
Sky have Kiryienka, Knees, Roche, Golas and Fenn in the race, Fenn being a winner of one of these races in the past, taking the Trofeo Palma de Mallorca in 2012 from a sprint. I can't see any of them winning it though. Cannondale have an interesting team here with the likes of Slagter, Navardauskas, Van Baarle and Breschel all with chances of going well. It will also be the debut on the World Tour for Ryan Mullen, it will be interesting to see how he goes this week.
IAM Cycling were disappointed with their Tour Down Under, and are looking to make amends this week. Vicente Reynes will be one to watch this week, he hails from Deia, the finish town of the Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana on Saturday.. They also have Jonas Van Genechten and Martin Elmiger who have chances on a course like this.
Etixx-QuickStep come here with a strong classics team with Keisse, Trentin, Meersman, Terpstra, Bouet and Vermote and we could see them causing havoc over the last 25kms. Trentin and Meersman could stay with the front of the race over the final hill and Trentin would have a chance in the sprint if he's brought there by strong team that's with him.
Eddie Boasson Hagen has a chance for Dimension data, he'll like this tough finish to the stage. Fabian Cancellara makes his debut for the season, and by all accounts he is going really well in his pre-season training.. He has been posting some good times on Strava on his training rides on Teide, Gran Canaria and in the the past week while training around Mallorca. Jasper Stuyven and Edward Theuns also appear to be going very well. Stuyven could be a dark horse for this, he could pull off a result like his win in stage 8 of the Vuelta last year.
And there's plenty of others who could get involved - the Spanish teams like Caja Rural, the GB team led by Wiggins have the likes of Owain Doull and Andy Tennant who could feature. A long break could make it, but I think we may see a reduced bunch sprint finish fight it out.
As of Wed night at 11pm though we have no prices and it's looking unlikely we will get some. My picks though for 5 to watch in the race are:
1. Sam Bennett
2. Jasper Stuyven
3. Ramunas Navardauskas
4. Matteo Trentin
5. Edvald Boasson Hagen
Update: 10am - The Spanish betting company Kirol have prices for the race, more or less as I expected it, but Greipel is too short at 1.9 (9/10).. Bennett is also pretty short at 3/1, but would be taking a small bet from me. In fact there isn't a great deal of value there at all, they are betting to an over-round of 130% on just the first 10 riders. Stuyven to come in the top 3 at 2.20 is possibly worth a shot, as is Navardauskas at 5/1.
Route Map
MOVISTAR TEAM
2 AMADOR, Andrey (CRC)
5 DOWSETT, Alex (GBR)
6 ERVITI, Imanol (ESP)
8 IZAGUIRRE, Gorka (ESP)
9 IZAGUIRRE, Jon (ESP)
10 MORENO Javier (ESP)
14 VISCONTI Giovanni ( ITA)
15 ARCAS, Jorge (ESP)
TEAM SKY
16 KIRYIENKA, Vasil (BLR)
18 FENN Andrew (GBR)
20 KNEES, Christian (GER)
22 LOPEZ, David (ESP)
23 MOSCONI, Gianni (ITA)
26 ROCHE, Nicolas (IRL)
29 GOLAS, Michal ( POL)
PRO CYCLING-CANNONDALE
30 Navardauskas, Ramunas (LTU)
31 Breschel, Matti (DEN)
32 Koren Kristijan (SLO)
33 LANGEVELD, Sebastian (NED)
35 MULLEN, Ryan (IRL)
36 Skujiņš, Toms (LAT)
37 VAN BAARLE Dylan (NED)
38 SLAGTER, Tom Jelte (NED)
FDJ
40 CHAVANEL Sebastien (FRA)
41 COURTEILLE, Arnaud (FRA)
42 EIKING, Odd Christian (NOR)
44 Ladagnous, Matthieu (FRA)
45 LE GAC, Olivier (FRA)
46 MAISON, Jeremy (FRA)
47 Manzin, Lorenzo (FRA)
48 Sarreau, Marc (FRA)
IAM CYCLING
50 REYNES, Vicente (ESP)
51 CHEVRIER, Clement (FRA)
52 CLEMENT, Stef (NED)
54 ELMIGER, Martin (SUI)
55 LANG, Pirmin (SUI)
56 LAENGEN, Vegard Stake (NOR)
57 Vangenechten, Jonas (BEL)
60 ZAUGG, Oliver (SUI)
ETIXX - QUICK STEP
61 Stybar, Zdenek (CZE)
63 BOUET, Maxime (FRA)
65 DE PLUS, Laurens (BEL)
67 Keisse, Iljo (BEL)
70 MEERSMAN, Gianni (BEL)
71 Terpstra Niki (NED)
72 TRENTIN Matteo (ITA)
73 VERMOTE, Julien (BEL)
DATA - DIMENSION
76 BOASSON Hagen, Edvald (NOR)
78 Brammeier, Matthew (IRL)
79 EISEL, Bernhard (AUT)
83 REGUIGUI, Youcef (ALG)
84 Siutsou, Kanstantsin (BLR)
85 Teklehaimanot, Daniel (ERI)
87 VAN ZYL, Johann (RSA)
89 BERHANE, Natnael (ERI)
TREK FACTORY RACING
90 Cancellara Fabian (SUI)
92 DEVOLDER, Stijn (BEL)
93 POPOVYCH, Yaroslav (UKR)
97 IRIZAR, Markel (ESP)
98 RAST Grégory (SUI)
99 Stuyven, Jasper (BEL)
100 THEUNS, Edward (BEL)
102 Coledan, Marco (ITA)
SOUDAL-LOTTO
103 GREIPEL Andre (GER)
106 Buyst, Jasper (BEL)
108 DEBUSSCHERE, Jens (BEL)
109 FRISON, Frederik (BEL)
111 ROELANDTS, Jurgen (BEL)
112 SIEBERG, Marcel (GER)
113 VERVAEKE Louis (BEL)
114 WELLENS, Tim (BEL)
ROTH -TEAM
118 CECCHIN, Alberto (ITA)
119 D'URBAN, Marco (ITA)
121 Janor schke, Grischa (GER)
122 KOHLER, Martin (SUI)
123 Křížek, Matthias (AUT)
124 MARGUET, Tristan (SUI)
125, Dylan (SUI)
BORA-ARGON 18
137 PFINGSTEN, Christoph (GER)
142 Selig, Rudiger (GER)
143 BENNETT, Sam (IRL)
145 Schwarzmann, Michael (GER)
147 THWAITES, Scott (GBR)
148 SCHILLINGER, Andreas (GER)
149 PÖSTLBERGER, Lukas (AUT)
150 Dempster, Zakkari (AUS)
CAJA RURAL INSURANCE RGA
155 MAS, Luis (ESP)
157 Madrazo, Angel (ESP)
158 Goncalves, Andre (POR)
159 Gonçalves, José (POR)
160 MOLINA, Antonio (ESP)
162 ROSON, Jaime (ESP)
163 SAEZ Hector (ESP)
166 VILELA, Ricardo (POR)
COFIDIS CREDIT SOLUTIONS
168 ROSSETTO, Stephane (FRA)
170 MATE, Luis Angel (ESP)
171 BAGOT, Yoann (FRA)
174 CHETOUT, Loic (FRA)
175 EDET Nicolas (FRA)
177 Hofstetter, Hugo (FRA)
180 MOLARD Rudy (FRA)
181 PEREZ, Anthony (FRA)
RUSVELO
184 Serov, Alexander (RUS)
185 Ershov, Artur (RUS)
187 Maikin, Roman (RUS)
190 SOLOMENNIKOV, Andrei (RUS)
193 Kurbatov Alexey (RUS)
195 Sveshnikov, Kirill (RUS)
196 STASH, Mamyr (RUS )
197 BOEV, Igor (RUS)
STRADALLI - BIKE AID
200 SCHAEFER, Timo (GER)
201 GARCIA, Damien (FRA)
202 HAGOS Teshome, Meron (ERI)
203 BICHLMANN, Daniel (GER)
205 BECK, Joschka (GER)
206 MERSEBURG, Dominik (GER)
208 SCHNAPKA , Matthias (GER)
211 Lechner, Patrick (GER)
BURGOS BH
212 RIUTORT, Juan Carlos (ESP)
213 TORRES, Pablo (ESP)
216 MARTIN, Victor (ESP)
217 SALAS, Ibai (ESP)
218 PINE, Jesus (ESP)
219 MERINO, Igor (ESP)
220 CUBERO, Jorge (ESP)
221 LOPEZ, Daniel (ESP)
EUSKADI (Basque Country)
222 BRAVO, Garikoitz (ESP)
223 TXOPERENA, Benat (ESP)
224 INSAUSTI, Jon Ander (ESP)
225 OLABERRIA, Peio (ESP)
227 Estevez, Imanol (ESP)
228 LIZARRALDE, Eneko (ESP)
229 GONZALEZ Adrian (ESP)
230 UDONDO, Gotzon (ESP)
EUROPE- GM OVINI
235 MARQUEZ, Jose A. ()
236 BALYKIN, Ivan (RUS)
237 BURCHIO, Federico (ITA)
240 FORTIN, Filippo (ITA)
241 PACCHIARDO, Davide (ITA)
242 ROTONDI, Matteo (ITA)
243 RUSCETTA, Andrea ()
244 Sazanov, Andrey ()
LOKOSPHINX
245 Strakhov, Dmitry (RUS)
246 Vdovin Sergey (RUS)
247 Vdovin Alexander (RUS)
248 SAMOLENKOV, Artem (RUS)
249 ZHURAVLEV, Vadim (RUS)
250 Neustroev, Vasilii (RUS)
251 Shilov, Sergei (RUS )
252 Sokolov Dmitri (RUS)
SPAIN (Track)
253 TORRES, Albert (ESP)
255 CANELLAS, Xavier (ESP)
256 MORA, Sebastian (ESP)
258 LOVES, Julio A. (ESP)
DM 259 GARCIA, Vicente (ESP)
261 ZUAZUBISCAR, Illart (ESP)
262 JURY, Marcos (ESP)
263 IRISARRI, Jon (ESP)
GREAT BRITAIN
266 WIGGINS Bradley (GBR)
268 TENNANT, Andrew (GBR)
269 BURKE, Steven (GBR)
270 SOULL, Owain (BGR)
271 Dibben, Johnathan (GBR)
273 WOOD, Oliver (GNR)
274 Lathan Christopher (GBR )
277 CULLAIGH, Gabriel (GBR)
Trofeo Pollença - Andratx
Trofeo Pollença – Andratx, 153kms
Friday 29th January
So the radar is working pretty good, but it failed to spot the low-flying dive bomber! André Greipel surprised me a little, the final climb must not have been very difficult at all... He may have won it and the bookies got it right in pricing him up as favourite, but there is no way I'd have backed him at 9/10 in his first race of the season. Bennett did well to finish second, but I would think that he is probably disappointed now to be finishing 2nd in races, he can win these.. I actually managed to name four of the first five home in my picks, with Greipel the odd one out, EBH, Trentin and Navardauskas were the others just behind Bennett. Interestingly Meersman went off at half the price of Trentin, when I thought it should have been the other way around.. Trentin proved me right but would have paid nothing finishing 5th (Meersman finished 61st).
Race two out of four starts in the north-western corner of Mallorca in Pollenca and winds in and out of the hills while making its way down to the finish on the south-west corner of the island in Andratx. There are three tough climbs to get over out on the course, and one just 8kms from the finish, with a final pull up to the finish in Andratx. It looks like a stage that a breakaway could succeed on, but there's also a chance that some sprinters could make it to the finish with a lead group.
After a couple of small lumps to get over inside the first 10kms, the next 20kms are flat until they start heading up in to the hills. The road gets steep very quickly and they first go over the Coll de Femenia Coll de Mosset after 48kms and just 7kms later they crest the highest point on the course, the Coll de sa Batalla at 573m. After a 7kms descent the road rolls along for 35kms as they head towards the motorway MA-13. After 96kms they they head back in to the mountains, first cresting the Coll des Grau Es Coll des Grau (460m), descend for 5kms and then climb 5kms again up to the Coll des Moli de Vent Coll de sa Molo (375m).
As they loop down around the coast for the last 15kms they go over the small climbs of the Collet de Cala Blanca and Coll de s'Arraco which comes with just 8kms to go. The last kilometre drags uphill in the town of Andratx on a narrowish road, so positioning coming in to the final roundabout at the bottom of the hill will be crucial.
You would think that if Alejandro Valverde is anywhere near race fitness he probably wins this. He has a strong looking Movistar team with him, including Tour de San Luis victor Dayer Quintana. Movistar should be able to boss the front of the peloton for most of this stage and deliver Valverde to the front for the charge up the hill to the finish.
Cannondale are firing on all cylinders at the start of this season, they seem to have done things differently over the winter this year or something, as they were going well in the TDU and today Navardauskas sprinted to 4th place. If he carries on in that vein he has a good chance of going close on this uphill finish, a finish that actually suits him better probably than today's flat one (there will be less sprinters involved for one).
Andy Fenn sprinted well today for Team Sky, finishing in 7th place, but it may be that tomorrow we see the team ride for former World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski. Who knows what sort of form he's in but the vibes coming out of the Sky camp are that he is ready to go, plus he has had a much clamer off-season than last year with the World Champion merry-go-round. They also have the likes of Lars Petter Nordhaug who could attack late on this finish.
IAM Cycling had a top ten too with Jonas Van Genechten and if he can carry that in to tomorrow's stage and stay with the leaders he could go close again. Etixx have a seriously strong team here again with the exact same 8 riders taking to the startline as yesterday's race. If the likes of Lapmpaert and Trentin can stay with the front until the closing 20kms or so they have a chance on the rolling closing terrain.
Edvald Boasson Hagen showed yesterday that he is in good shape, he's looking lean.. This sort of course should be right up his street again so I would expect him to top 10 it again, may even pop up on the podium.
Looking at Kirol Bet this morning for the local bookie's odds, they have Greipel favourite again at 5/4.. again, looks way too short to me, but they got it spot on yesterday and maybe their local knowledge of the roads say that he can get to the finish again! But I couldn't back that price, there are a number of tough climbs to get over, plus there's the uphill pull to the line. On the other hand, in his defence, his Lotto team did a great job yesterday to reel in the late breaks with ease and then lead him in to the last 500m. He is also training for Milan-San-Remo here, so will be working hard to get over the hills and if he can be brought to the last 500m again at the front he might just be too strong for these guys.
Valverde looks big to me at 20s, if Movistar can shake off the likes of Greipel, Navardauskas and Trentin he could have a chance on the uphill finish. They also make Debuscherre 9/1 4th favourite, like as if they don't really know if Greipel will make it, yet still make him 5/4 favourite.. JensDebus finished 19th today after leading Greipel in to the last 500m. Kwiatkowski is 14/1, he could attack late on in this run in, or who knows, he could pull off a sprint like he did in Amstel Gold last year, but somehow I can't see it happening...
No odds in the UK/Ireland again, looks like they're taking the week off, but my selections for today, in no particular order are:
1. Edvald Boasson Hagen
2. Alejandro Valverde
3. Matteo Trentin
4. Ramunas Navardauskas
5. Jonas Van Genechten
Route Map
Profile
Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana
Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana, 143.1kms
Saturday 30th January
Well it was Ian right, bookies wrong when it came to Greipel today as he was indeed dropped on the climbs late on in the race and never got back on. Never expected Gianluca Brambilla to get away and stay away from a strong chasing bunch that included the likes of Navardauskas and Trentin.. But hang on he did, despite having only 10" with 1km to go.. A superb victory for Etixx QS, who are looking very strong already this year.. They also had Stybar in 3rd, Bouet in 12th and Trentin in 14th today. That's the team's third victory in 2016 after Gaviria's stage win and the opening TTT in San Luis.
It was a good result for Sky too with Michal Kwiatkowski sprinting up the hill to take 2nd. Dylan Van Baarle went well for Cannondale too to take 5th place, Cannondale were well to the fore today, with Navardauskas and Mullen in the break, but what about young Tiesj Benoot again - the 21-year old is going to be a rider to watch this year, taking 4th place in his first race of the year. Fabian Cancellara could also have started making some of his rivals sweat a little bit with a powerful performance that saw him take 6th in the sprint, he's looking lean and mean ahead of the Spring campaign.
This is a relatively short race at 143.1kms, but it's the toughest day in the saddle with more than ten climbs on the route and 2,912m of climbing. The climbing starts inside the first 4kms as they tackle the Coll de Sóller (497m), a rude awakening to the day that they crest after just 10kms. A 15km descent and then on to the next climb, a double ascension that totals 14kms by the time they get over the Coll d'en Claret. Two more climbs along the way will continue to tire the peloton before they hit the hard final 50kms.
They climb over the Coll de sa Batalla again, the same climb they hit on the second race, a small descent is quickly followed by the climb to the highest point of the week of the Coll de Puig Major at over 900m. A fast and tricky descent for nearly 15kms takes them down to Sóller before they head towards the coast and up the twisting climb out of Horta. A quick descent down to the coast takes them to the last uphill run to the finish line in Deià, a hard finish to a very hard stage.
Vicente Reynes of IAM Cycling hails from Deiá where the stage finishes today, so expect him and his IAM team to be doing everything they can to win the race. The only problem is that Vinny isn't the most prolific these days and it's been a while since he put his hands in the air.
Alejandro Valverde finished in the top 10 today but this stage should suit him even more, he did win it last year after all.. We might see some breakaway guys make it today, but I think it will not be easy for them to stay away from Movistar, Trek and the like as they look to set up a sprint up that finish in to Deiá, or for a late attack from Valverde like last year - he won it solo by 1'23". Kirolbet have him as their 2/1 favourite, and again, like Greipel on race 2, that is a bit short to me.. He is a likely winner, but as we saw today anything can happen in these races and 2/1 is a risk.
Michal Kwiatkowski has got good legs as was evident today, he is up for it and Sky have said that they will be going for it tomorrow. They also have Konig in the team, he finished 3rd here last year, so will be a valuable asset to Kwiat. 3/1 is again far too short though, these Kirol bookies really aren't taking any chances...
Zdenek Stybar is in good shape and took a fine 3rd place today, he's 9/1 3rd favourite for tomorrow. He tends to start his seasons well as we saw with his 3rd place in the Vuelta a Murcia last year, his first race of 2015. If he can get over the big final climb he has a chance at this finish.
Trek have big ambitions for tomorrow, they were disappointed with today's result, they were hoping Cancellara would have done better after a lot of hard work by Mollema to try to pull back Brambilla. They said Felline was very strong also and just missed out on joining the lead group, they will be looking to do better tomorrow according to their DS Alain Gallopin. Mollema at 19/1 could be the one for tomorrow's finish - he finished 4th last year in the Trofeo Andratx, which actually had a course more similar to this race. He finished 6" behind Cummings and Valverde on the uphill finish alongside Konig and Formolo.
Tiesj Benoot was excellent today, taking 4th in a high quality top 10, with Valverde and Cancellara behind him. Last year, at just 20 years of age he finished 8th on this course, a pretty impressive result. He can possibly move up to a top five placing given his performance today, he obviously has good legs.
Gio Visconti finished 6th here last year and after finishing 10th today when helping Valverde to his 8th place, he could be one to watch too tomorrow if all eyes are on Valverde. After taking a break today Tom Jelte Slagter is back in action here and if he is in good form he could be involved in that uphill finish. He missed the start of last season with injury, but in previous seasons he has started well, taking 2 stage wins in the TDU two years ago. He didn't go great in the first race on Thursday though, finishing 9th from last, so hard to know if he's not in great shape, or was just treating it as a training run.
Hard to call how this race is going to go, but I think we should see some of the following fight it out, and I'm leaning towards Kwiatkowski stealing it..
1. Kwiatkowski
2. Valverde
3. Benoot
4. Visconti
5. Mollema
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Trofeo Playa de Palma
Trofeo Playa de Palma - Palma, 165.8kms
Sunday January 31st
That was a hell of a ride by Fabian Cancellara today, bridging up to the four breakaway leaders and then putting 50" in to them on the descent of one of the climbs.. We know he can descend, I'm sure you've all see the video of him descending in the Tour de France in 2009, but to put 50" on other pros in a relatively short descent is incredible. Valverde and Kwiatkowski came in pursuit, but the Trek DS was true to his word that they were going to try something today, and it will have some (including me) rethinking his chances in the Classics.
Kwiatkowski maintains his strong run of form, taking his second 2nd place in a row. They did say he was up for it today and again, only for a lone breakaway that they were not able to reel in, Kwiat would be looking at two victories in two races. The third place went to another rider I bigged up yesterday, and boy is he looking good this year - Tiesj Benoot. So good in fact that I've had a nibble on him for Flanders at 28/1 with Bet365 (he was 5th last year as a 20year old..). Brambilla showed he is not resting on his laurels of race victor from the day before, taking a fine 4th place, with Valverde one place behind him.
The final installment of the four-day festival finishes with the Trofeo Playa de Palma - Palma, on a similar circuit as last years. It's a 165.8km run which is mostly flat to rolling roads but is interrupted by two climbs in quick succession within 15kms. They climb from the get-go though as they head up towards Llucmajor out of the outskirts of Palma and up towards Randa. The next 90kms are rolling up and down as they head up towards Santa Magalida and Inca before turning right at Santa Maria del Camí and in to the hills.
After 100kms they start the Coll d'en Portell Es Coll, a warmup for the main event, the climb of the Coll des Vent.. It's a 10km drag that actually isn't as steep as it looks on the profile, as it averages closer to 3% for the 10kms reaching 385m at the top, and is actually classed as a Cat 3 climb. After a descent for 10kms down to Palma they hit a circuit which they do twice, running back and forth along the harbour out to the Naval base and back, before finishing in front of the Boat House on the Avinguda de Gabriel Roca.
The climb looks ridiculously steep on the profile below, but it was no problem to the sprinters last year when the top five were Pelucchi, Greipel, Swift, Bennett and Coquard and I expect it to end in a sprint again this year.
Greipel, Bennett or Bouhanni - the three favourites for the sprint - which will it be? Griepel won well on Thursday, but Bora-Argon didn't do the best leadout and as they approached the 500m to go sign Bennett almost had to go on the grass on the right hand side of the road to try to get back in position. As a result, he was about 6th wheel coming to the sprint, got past the rest, tried to go right of Griepel but he closed the door, then had to go left and it was too late.
Greipel is 5/4 favourite to win again and again, I can't be backing that sort of price. He'll be up there, but I think Bennett will be closer this time and could even pip him. Not only that, Nacer Bouhanni is in the mix now and that is a second big danger for Greipel to worry about. Bouhanni is making his seasonal debut, he skipped Thursday's race, but the last time he pinned on a race number in October, he won the Sluitingprijs in Belgium. Interestingly Kirol make Bouhanni second favourite, but there really isn't much in it, he's only 7/4. At the prices, with Bennett at 5/1 I know who'd I'd rather be on. Bennett at 1.95 to come in the top 3 looks a decent bet.
Jonas Van Genechten carries IAM's hopes in the sprint, he was close in the Trofeo Felanitx, taking 6th place. He could take a top 6 again but I doubt he'll make the podium. Same for Navardauskas - he abandoned today's race, but I would think that was to save the legs for today rather than anything being wrong with him. Dimension Data were supposed to be riding for Reguigui in the sprint on Thursday, but he got a little lost so Boasson Hagen ended up sprinting for them. I'd expect they will be working for him tomorrow and he could go close too. Meersman, Theuns and Fenn could also be involved, but I'm picking Sam Bennett to get off the mark at the second attempt and reverse placings with Greipel.
Recommendations:
1. Bennett
2. Greipel
3. Reguigui
4. Bouhanni
5. Navardauskas
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