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- Published on Thursday, 16 March 2017 22:53
Volta a Catalunya
March 20th to 26th
We've had some brilliant, exciting, crazy and chaotic racing in both Tirreno-Adriatico and Paris Nice in the past week, so the Volta has got it's hands full with trying to match the drama we've witnessed there!
From the chaos on the opening stages in the wind of Paris Nice, to the last gasp drama with Contador, or the frantic and exciting racing of Tirreno-Adriatico with the Sagan and Quintana show, Catalunya will have a lot to live up to.
The race never disappoints and is full of interesting and challenging stages, with plenty of hills to test the riders. No individual TT this year either, but for the first time since 2005 they will have to endure a Team Time Trial on stage 2, and it's not an easy one either, over a lumpy loop of 41kms. This is actually quite a crazy challenge to throw in to a race which is packed full of climbing types, there are very few teams who have a strong lineup for a Team Time Trial and most teams are going to really struggle to even stay within 1-2 minutes of those teams that have a half-decent TT lineup. This race will be over for most before the start of the third stage.
The race starts with a bang with a 179kms stage that has them climbing and descending almost the whole stage, with two Cat 1 climbs in 20kms. Stage 3 sees them head inland and over 3 Cat 1 climbs in the last 80kms, including twice over the hill to the finish at La Molina, a popular climb with this race which has proved decisive in the past.
Stage 4 sees them descend for most of the day but there's a nasty little Cat 2 that tops out 14kms from the finish, so we could have a select group of puncheurs and climbers fight it out. Stage 5 is one of those L shaped stages where it's flat for 160kms, then goes vertical for the last 22kms for the Especiale climb to Tortosa. Stage 6 is a lumpy stage that includes another Cat 1 climb, but has a 30km descent and a little kicker just before the finish. The race ends in Barcelona with its customary circuit around the City, taking in eight ascents of the Alt de Mont Juic.
It's a race that in recent years has been won by incredibly small margins - Last year Quintana won by just 7" from Contador, Porte won it in 2015 by just 4" from Valverde with Pozzovivo just 1" further back in 3rd. In 2014. Joaquim Rodriguez won a very close-run contest with Contador - coincidentally only 4" separated them at the finish too after he skipped away on the climb to La Molina.
We have previous winners Dan Martin and Alejandro Valverde here again this year and former runners-up Samuel Sanchez and Alberto Contador. We will also get to see Chris Froome make his European debut after a spring full of controversy for Team Sky, a race he has never won though and as it's his first action in Europe of the year, I can't see that changing. There is also Rohan Dennis here who went so well in Tirreno, as well as Woet Poels, Tejay Van Garderen, Adam Yates, Ilnur Zakarin, Julian Alaphilippe, Bauke Mollema, Adam Yates, Steven Kruisjwijk, Romain Bardet and Andrew Talansky.
André Greipel and Nacer Bouhanni are about the only two sprinters that have come here, but I'm not really sure why, there doesn't appear to be many sprint chances for them this year, although Bouhanni did take two stage wins last year.
2015 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nairo Quintana | Movistar | 30h 50min 19s |
| 2 | Alberto Contador | Tinkoff | at 07s |
| 3 | Daniel Martin | Quick-Step | at 19s |
The Route
It's a very familiar route, lots of climbing, lots of the same climbs but with a novelty TTT thrown in this year to shake things up a bit. Seeing as how close the race has been in the past years, it's very possible that it's decided by how well or badly the main GC hopefuls' teams do in the team time trial. There are very few chances for the sprinters and lots of roads that are familiar to all the riders who live and train in and around Girona.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Calella to Calella
Monday, March 20th 175.8kms
A pretty familiar feel to the stage, as it's the customary race opener starting and finishing in Calella, heading off north in a loop in the hills north of the town, but this year going clock-wise instead of anti-clockwise last year. Instead they go out along the coast to Mataro, turn right and go over the Cat 3 Alt de Parpers (Farters hill I think in Spanish), and then climb for more or less the next 50km. Along the way they hit the Cat 2 Alt dels Pinars de Badé and the Alt de la Pulosa as they turn right and head north-east.
After that it's around 15kms of descending to the start of the main obstacle of the day, the double Cat 1 hits in the space of just 10kms, with first the Alt de Muntanya and then the familiar Alt de Coll Formic which reaches 1145m, averaging 5% for 9.3kms, hitting ramps of up to 9%. There's only 54kms to go from the top, of which around 30kms are the descent off the Formic, then one final challenge, the short and sharp Cat 3 climb of the Alt de Collsacreu, 3.3kms at 4.7% average, max 6%. From the top there are just 18.2kms left, most of which is a very fast descent back down to Calella with a pretty straight and flat finish.
Last year's stage was won by Nacer Bouhanni who came past Ben Swift in the last 150m after surviving over the climbs. Could we see a similar outcome this year? Well there are just two elite sprinters here - Bouhanni and Greipel - so if either of them can't win the stage then it's going to be a bit of a shock. Despite the difficulties out on the road, with the Cat 1 climb about 60kms from the finish, and the Cat 2 Collsacreu less than 20kms from the finish, they didn't seem to inconvenience the likes of Bouhanni, Swift and the rest last year and the result was inevitable as soon as they hit the last few kilometres.
The year before though it finished with the break taking the victory, with Maciej Paterski outsprinting Pierre Rolland, with Bart de Clercq in 3rd, and Tosh Van der Sande winning the bunch sprint 2'40" behind.and in 2014 it was another bunch sprint with Luca Mezgec out sprinting Leigh Howard.
I actually think that this year's stage looks to be harder than last year's though - there is the double Cat 1 hit with over 20kms of climbing taking them over the Alt de Coll Formic, and that might make the difference this year. The likes of Bouhanni and Greipel might really struggle on 20kms of Cat 1 climbing, but there are still 50kms to go from the top, so if they haven't lost too much time they might just get back in. But even if they do, it will have been a real struggle and they may be put under pressure again on the Collsacreu.
The break has a big chance of making it too on a day like this - depending on who is in it and how hard the GC team's race it over the Cat 1s they might go all the way. The reason Bouhanni was able to stay in touch last year was because the pace was so slow and sedate, the peloton dozed through the day. With the TTT the next day though that could decide the faith of many climbers we could see a number of them try to force a split and try to make some time up ahead of the TTT. Don't be surprised to see this race split in to several groups up the Coll Formic, and if the pace is kept high we could see a GC group of maybe 40-50 riders fight out the finish. I'm not saying Bouhanni or Greipel can't hang in there, but it's going to be very hard for them I think.
So we are left with trying to pick the winner out of a selection of about 50 guys.. The break has a great chance as I said, but if the pace is really high in the opening 100kms to tire out the sprinters and their teams then they may well be caught on the Coll Formic or on the way down to the finish. The bookies have priced it up like the sprinters will still be there, with André Greipel the 7/2 favourite, with Bouhanni 15/4.. so there's a little bit of doubt in there, as they would be even money and 6/4 or something like that if it was a flat stage.
Alejandro Valverde looks a big danger then of course if it does come down to a GC men's group, but there may be still some better sprinters than him still in there, or there may even be a small group attacks from the main group in the run-in over the Collsacreu, if the GC men's teams are short in numbers they may struggle to organise a concerted chase effort, and they'll be mindful of the TTT the next day too.
A few that I like though are the following: Nathan Haas can win from a reduced group sprint, or he can get involved in a late attack from the lead group. He's had some good results this season and comes here with the number 1 bib for the team, so it looks like they are behind him this week. 14/1 isn't great with Bet365, but the 33/1 with Skybet is much better.
Arthur Vichot is in good form, in the 6 races he has finished so far this year, the French champion has finished 1st, 7th, 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 2nd - a remarkable run of results. He's the lead man here for FDJ too and has a strong team of puncheurs here with him that could see 3 or 4 with him at the finish, and that might swing a tight sprint finish in his favour. He's also one that can go with a late attack too. He's 40/1 with Bet365, worth a small bet. His team-mate Davide Cimolai would have a chance too on a stage like this, but I think he'll be working for Vichot in the finale if he's still there. What I like about these two picks too is that even if Bouhanni and/or Greipel make it to the sprint, they could possibly be scrapping for a podium spot too.
Daryl Impey and Julian Alaphilippe would have a chance on a stage like this too, but Impey only finished on a podium twice in the whole of 2016 and hasn't won a race since September 2014, so how could you have any confidence in backing him at just 12/1?! Alaphilippe was brilliant again in MSR on Saturday, but what has that taken out of him? I wouldn't be surprised to see him hide away a little bit and try to recover for better opportunities later in the race. (Scratch that, Alaphilippe's not riding in this race after all..)
Jonas Van Genechten might have a chance at 40/1, he could get over that climb and be challenging in the sprint, whatever sprint it becomes, as could Sean de Bie at 66/1. Maceij Paterski at 125/1 with Skybet looks big for a late attack, or how about Geraint Thomas taking a flyer in the closing stages here, I wouldn't put it past him and he's big at 150/1 with 365. Or what about Geoffrey Soupe at 100/1? He sometimes gets a chance to sprint when Bouhanni isn't there, if we don't think BouBou will make it to the finish, then Soupe might have a shot at 100/1.
This is a real tricky stage to try to guess about on the very first day, there is a possibility the sprinters make it, but I'm not going to back them now. If they do get over the climb, Bouhanni will probably go to around evens, but can Greipel take advantage of a tired Bouhanni after a tough day at MSR on Saturday? I think he will offer better value in play if you were to pick one of the two of them if it does look like they will feature at the finish. I'm happy to take a shot with a 33/1 and a 40/1 shot though to ease us in to the race.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Nathan Haas at 33/1 with Skybet
0.5pts each-way on Arthur Vichot at 40/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Vichot to beat McCarthy - 2pts at evens
Bardet to beat Froome - 1pt at 6/4
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Stage 2
Stage 2 - Banyoles to Banyoles
Tuesday March 21st, 41.3km TTT
So the peloton did exactly the same as last year and dozed their way to a sprint win for Bouhanni.. only the script was not read by FDJ and Davide Cimolai, as he pipped BouBou to the line. I don't think Bouhanni could believe it, I don't think Bouhanni's backers could believe it, surely they were counting their money with 200m to go.. As for André Greipel, he was 5/6 in-play as they hurtled towards the finish, and he never got a blow in, finishing 5th. So it looked like the hills did take the sting out of their legs, just not enough that it dropped them and other sprinters.
In the end it was a very good win for Cimolai at 16/1, his upright style in marked contrast to Bouhanni's low aero position. Bouhanni's late lunge looked like it might have nicked it, but Cimolai held on. So a weird start to the race, with even Sbaragli and Dion Smith beating Greipel to the win. Rojas featured well in 6th, Daryl Impey with another close, but miles away 7th and Vakoc showing he has good legs to stomp his way in to the top 10.
Unfortunately Arthur Vichot led out Cimolai, as was the team's plan it now transpires, so he eased off with 200m to go, and in doing so rolled so far back he lost the match with McCarthy. At least Bardet featured well to comfortably beat Froome by about 100 positions. Nathan Haas worked for Dion Smith and rolled home over 3 minutes down.
A team time trial suddenly appears in the Volta ao Catalunya for the first time in 12 years, and it could be a pivotal stage in deciding the outcome of this race. It's a long TT at 41kms and it's a tough, lumpy course too with a 4km climb in the middle of the stage. It's an anti-clockwise loop that goes out north-east of Banyoles and finishes in Banyoles again. It's a real tricky course as the first 13kms are pretty lumpy with lots of little hills, then they have to climb for 3kms at 3.5%, then the last 10kms are mostly slightly downhill so you will need to have kept some power back to carry the speed all the way to the line.
This is a mad idea, there could be some huge gaps between the top and bottom teams here - 41kms is a long way - just look at the recent TTT over 22kms in Tirreno, BMC beat Novo Nordisk by 2'52" - this is twice as long nearly and there are teams like Manzana Postobon and Brazil Pro Cycling here, we could be looking at a gap of 5 minutes or more to these poor guys. Even the gaps between the top teams could be significant, with some GC hopefuls seeing their race go up in smoke already. Funvic / Brazil had four riders finish over 17 minutes down in today's stage, they could finish over the time limit tomorrow if they're not careful.
BMC opened at 1/2 with Paddy Power for this, a crazy short price, but then they also opened with Sky at 8/1, a crazy long price. The prices stabilised a little after that and BMC went out to 8/11, then back in to 8/13, with Sky coming in as low as 2/1 and then out to 3/1. Movistar were 7/1 too and are now nearly half that price at 4/1, whereas Trek have gone the other way from 18/1 to 33/1. LottoNL, who I thought might go well here, have gone from 80/1 to 150/1, there mustn't be any takers for them at all so far.
So BMC wins right? They do look to have the strongest team here, although it isn't the strongest team on their books. Dennis, Van Garderen, Bookwalter, Rosskopf and Sanchez are old hands at this game and Frankiny, De Marchi and Hermans will be well drilled too. They may only finish with Dennis, TVG, Bookwalter, Hermans, Rosskopf and Sanchez as a unit, but that's all they need. They have a good mix of pure TT engines for the flatter parts and guys who can climb too for the hillier parts. They look a cert and if they come near 8/11 or even money again I'll be backing them.
Sky do look their biggest threat for sure as they are a powerful bunch of guys led by Thomas, Froome, Kennaugh, Kiryienka and Landa. They have strong support too from Rosa, Deignan and Nieve, and like BMC they are a good combination of climbing skills and flat rouleurs. I think they will be close, maybe 10-20" away from them, but I don't think they will beat them - Rosa, Deignan and Nieve will be weak links, they will probably lose Nieve pretty early on, he's not the best on a TT bike.
Movistar have another powerful squad though for this course, and I wouldn't be surprised if they have been out checking out this course multiple times over the winter as a group. Valverde did a great TT in Andalucia to finish 2nd, just 1" behind Campanaerts, so his TT legs are as good as they have ever been I reckon. Together with TT specialists Castroviejo, Amador and Oliveira they have a solid core that is ably supported by Erviti, Fernandez, Rojas and Soler.
Amador, Castro and Oliveira were in the team that finished 4th in the TTT in Tirreno, where they had Dowsett and Sutterlin too, is this a stronger team? It's quite similar I'd say, so they will be in a real battle for 2nd with Sky. I think that they might just have a tiny edge with fresher, fitter guys and the power of the senior guys.
After that, Trek look like they will be doing all they can to minimise Contador's time loss, but it's a far weaker team, with really only Brandle, Stetina and Contador the three engines, with Mollema, Gogl, Pantano, Irizar and Zubeldia not exactly world class on a TT bike. He'll be lucky to hold his loss to a minute I think.
As I said above, PP pushed out LottoNL Jumbo to a crazy 150/1 and I really should have had some - as they are not after chopping them to just 50/1, with Bet365 going only 20/1. I think they have a better team here than the bookies were giving them credit for, with Campanaerts, Lindeman, Gesink, Kruijswijk, Clement, Bennett and Vermeulen. I think they have a good mix of solid climbers and rouleurs and could well come close to the top 3 here, so at 50/1 they are worth a nibble.
Orica Scott could go ok too, with the old dog Svein Tuft leading the line, supported by Howson, Bewley, Impey, Edmonson and Plaza, with Yates and Verona the passengers on the team. There just isn't the core power there I think though to keep the speed up as high as it needs to be and I think they will lose 90" or more to the winners.
FDJ and Quickstep are around the same price, around 33/1, and both are similarly matched alright with a light representation of pure time trialling power. FDJ have Tobias Ludvigsson, but he is not as powerful as he used to be, and an in-form Davide Cimolai, but he isn't a time triallist. Quickstep have Dan Martin, who is getting better at TT's it does seem, supported by Peter Vakoc, Peter Serry, Laurens de Plus and Remi Cavagna, with maybe Mas, Schachman and Brambilla passengers for today. If there was a H2H between these two I'd have to pick Quickstep, although neother of them will be getting within a minute of the winner here.
Katusha haven't a bad team here, not sure they deserve to be 80/1, but the rest are really going to struggle to even make it in to the top 6, let alone the podium.
So - BMC wins, probably by 20" or so, but it will be tight for the runners-up spot. I think Movistar just have enough power to edge out Sky for 2nd, and LottoNL could come close too. But it's not a day for big bets, but if you can get close to evens for BMC I'd have 5pts or more on them. LottoNL at 50/1 can go close too maybe, it's about the only other bet that interests me, unless Movistar go 4/1 somewhere, they would be a 'bet to nothing' on BMC having an off day and possibly stealing the win.
Update 9.45pm: Bet365 have this evening gone 5/6 BMC and that's worth taking - 5pts win on them then..
Recommendations:
0.3pts each-way on LottoNL Jumbo at 50/1 with PP
5pts win on BMC at 5/6 with Bet365
Matchbets
LottoNL to beat FDJ and Sky to beat Trek, this looks pretty solid to me at 9/10 - 5pts win.
Adding - BMC to beat Movistar, Orica to beat QuickStep and LottoNL to beat FDJ - 2pts at 1.9/1 with 365
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Stage 3
Stage 3 - Mataro to La Molina
Wednesday March 22nd, 188.3kms
This is almost the exact same stage as stage 3 last year, well the last 100kms or so are. They start in Mataro on the coast and head north inland for over 100kms, before they turn left and start the trilogy of climbs that come over the next 80kms. First up is the Cat 1 Alt de Toses, then they pass through Alp and start the climb up to La Molina, a familiar finish in this race.
They pass over the La Molina with less than 25kms to go and they start on that final loop around the town that takes them back over the same climb at the end of the race. It is a different approach to the climb as last year though, but the riders don't seem to think it will make much of a difference, the gradient is similar but it's slightly longer.
It's hard to know exactly whether they finish compared to previous years as the maps and profiles are so bad, but I think the final kilometres are the same up to the usual finish. If it is the same, it's a funny old finish to the stage though, as with less than 4kms to go they descend for around 2kms down a pretty steep descent that sees them hit speeds of up to 75kmph, then with less than 2kms to go the road kicks up again and rises all the way to the line, getting steeper in the last 500m.They climb for around 10kms at an average of 4.5%, but as the climb peaks and then drops for about 2kms before the final climb to the finish, the actual climbing itself averages 6.5% for 8kms.
Last year saw Quintana, Poels, Zakarin, Contador all having a go at the front, but when Dan Martin surged past Quintana as they hit the team bus park area no one was able to stay with him and he won it very impressively as you can see in the video below (jump to 1.44.00 for the last 4kms).
It will almost certainly come down to a GC battle, there aren't too many opportunities for those trying to recover lost time from the TTT to take it back so they need to start straight away. This is a climb that never sees large time gaps though, there were only 12" between Martin in 1st and Froome in 9th last year, and only 22" covered the first 24 riders. The year before the top 10 were covered by 21" and in 2015 it was just 20".
I think we have to go with riders in form and riders with form on this finish.. Dan Martin looks the prime pick based on that, can he repeat his burst of acceleration from 12 months ago? He was superb last year, not just for the dismissive way he swept past Quintana's attempt at an attack, but the way he just kept going, extending his lead out of the saddle when normally you would expect chasers of the quality of that field to reel him in before the finish.
He is in good form this year too and has won already this year on a similar sort of finish in the Algarve, outsprinting Roglic on a climb that averaged 6% for 9kms. He can bide his time and pounce late like he did last year, he just needs to make sure he isn't positioned too far back when the first attacks go in case one of them sticks and he missed it. One note of caution though is that in 2014 he finished in 28th place, losing 31" to Rodriguez, but Martin is a far better rider these days I think.
Alberto Contador has gone well on this climb in the past, coming incredibly close, but has not managed to win it yet - 2nd to Purito in 2014, 3rd to Van Garderen in 2015 and 2nd again to Martin in 2016. He's been beaten by a total of only 10" over those 3 defeats. And you know, I think it could be similar this year - he's in good form, we know he'll attack, he has to know after losing so much time in the TTT, or at least be one of those willing and able to take up the chase after whoever makes the big final attack, but in a head to head with some of the other guys here I think he might just fall short again.
Chris Froome has never gone great on this climb, I think it's too short for him to really engage top gear, it becomes a sprint over the last 2kms and he has lacked the acceleration sometimes at this point in the season. Instead, Sky might look to Geraint Thomas and Mikel Landa here, who would have more of a punch I think than Froome. Thomas might be able to go with the likes of Martin, Contador and Valverde and could counter-punch on the final 300m to try to steal the stage. Landa on the other hand could be one to try his luck a little earlier, maybe with 2-3kms to go, he might steal a march if the others are watching Froome. Not sure he will hold on though.
Alejandro Valverde will have a chance if he's in the first group, if a smalll group comes to the last 500m and sprints it out. Only, I don't think it will, I think we will have single riders strung out again. And if so, what is likely to happen is someone will attack, Valverde will try to follow, won't be able to, then looks around for a wheel to suck to the finish to limit his time loss. A win and bonus seconds would be a big help for his GC chances of course, but I'm not sure he's capable.
Quick-Step have a second card they could play here, as Gianluca Brambilla looks a good shout to have a go earlier in the climb to make the others chase, he may even take off in the break of the day. Adam Yates could be a good outsider here too as he, like his brother in Paris-Nice he may not be watched as closely as the other favourites if he attacks late on, but he's quite short around 16/1. Ben Hermans, Romain Bardet, Jacob Fuglsang - all should be top 20, but may not be in the top 6 here I think.
If you're looking for big-priced outsiders, Bart de Clercq at 200/1 could go on the attack, or Alexis Vuillermoz might go well at 150/1 on a finish like this. Pieter Weening was on the attack here last year and was reeled in late on, he might try again at 66/1. Pierre Latour is also 66/1 and he was riding well in Paris Nice.
The TTT has shaken things up though in a way that we didn't expect it to, with Movistar now dominating the top 10 with Valverde in the leader's jersey. It means Valverde only has to do what Valverde does best for the rest of this race, and that's suck wheels.. But it also means that everyone else has to attack and I can see them ganging up on Movistar, there will be a real grudge between the top two teams after #Pushgate today when BMC cried foul about Movistar's win.
It means that Sky will be on the attack, Contador will be on the attack, Dan Martin will be stage hunting, it means BMC are going to be super aggressive and they will be firing riders offf left, right and centre - be it Dennis, Hermans, Sanchez, De Marchi or Van Garderen. But tomorrow I think Contador and Martin are going to be the two key players and I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 1-2 with maybe Landa or Hermans chasing them home,
Recommendations:
1.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 5/1 with Paddy Power
0.5pts each-way on Alberto Contador at 8/1 with Ladbrokes
MatchBets
Contador to beat Froome, Bennett to beat Gaudu and Zakarin to beat Majka - 2pts at 2.1/1 with 365
Hugh Carthy to beat Louis Meintjes - 2pts at 4/5
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Stage 4
Stage 4 - Llívia - Igualada
Thursday March 23rd, 194.3kms
Close but no cigar with Martin, he needed to gap Valverde straight away when he attacked but Valverde was on him in a flash and gave him no room. In a head-to-head sprint like that Valverde was always going to win, but it was pretty close to a nice result for Martin. Contador just could't go with them, despite Pantano working his socks off for him again, it was Adam Yates who nipped up for 3rd place ahead of a surprising Romain Bradet in 4th. TVG, Thomas and Zakarin finished on the same time as Yates, 3" down, Chris Froome was 5" behind them. George Bennett took an impressive 11th to seal the matchbets for us and in the end we managed to notch up 5.2pts profit, which I'll take.
Loser of the day was Hermans unfortunately, as he finished way down the field to hand the jersey over to his team-mate TVG. It was a bit worrying before the stage to watch him being interviewed and say that he was 4th in the pecking order here and he expected that he'd have to work. So who wins it now? I'll have to think more about that, but Thomas is creeping closer and Valverde has got back some time lost with the 13" he gained today.
Over in Dwars Door it was chaotic and wild as Quick-Step actually pulled off a superb tactical manouevre, launching Yves Lampaert to a great win for the team. Gilbert was excellent, Stybar and Tepstra looked strong, but it was a day to forget for all the sprinters, they didn't get a blow in, with Groenewegen the only one looking like he might do something, getting involved in earlier moves and winning the sprint for 5th. A small loss there of 1.75pts, so a 3.8pt profit on the day will make up for some of the disaster that was the TTT.
And speaking of the TTT, what a farce that turned in to with the UCI amending the result today penalising the entire Movistar team 1 minute and putting Hermans in the jersey (even though it should have been Bookwalter!!). It should have been done yesterday and not that farcical decision by the muppets in charge to penalise Rojas and let the team off in contravention of black and white rules.
So on to stage 4 - as this is a stage where they spend the first 100kms descending it's going to be a weird one and it looks like a day that the break might have it between them. After 110kms there's a little blip of a Cat 3 climb, then about 30kms of flat-ish roads before two little lumps in 40kms before the finish.
First up is the pull up from Tora which is about 8kms at 3.2%, then a descent for about 13kms before they start on the Cat 2 Turo del Puig, which is officially 2.3kms at 5.3%, but the climb itself is more like 10kms in total. Then it's a 12km charge down the hill before a flat last 2kms or so.
If the break hasn't managed to stay away, there will be some furious action over that Cat 2 climb as the puncheurs and climbers look to dispose of Greipel and Bouhanni as they will not want to take them to the finish for a sprint. Bet365 have priced it up like they are unsure also whether the sprinters will be fighting it out, with Bouhanni at 9/2 and Greipel at 5/1.
So can they shake them off? They weren't able to do so on the first stage on Mondayas the peloton did just enough to keep the break on a leash and not too much to drop them. But all the climbing did seem to take the sting out of the legs of the sprint favourites as they failed to capitalise on what many believed was a sure-thing for either Bouhanni or Greipel. The downhill run for the first 100kms will encourage the stronger, rouleur types to go for it, as they will be able to build up a big lead ahead of a peloton who might well doze through the opening half of the stage again.
If we get a strong group of rouleurs, maybe just 6-8 will be the right amount, then it will be full gas from them for the first half of the stage as they look to put a big gap between them and the sprinters. And who are going to help Cofidis and Lotto-Soudal in the chase? It looks like the likes of Bouhanni and Greipel may well get over these climbs near the finish again and it will probably come down to a head-to-head between them, so who will want to waste energy early on, they might just wait until the Cat 2 20kms from the finish and go full gas there to try to drop the sprinters.. but if the lead group still have a minute or two lead it could be too late.
And it wouldn't surprise me to see Lotto Soudal put someone in the break in case of that scenario, so they have a card to play there and also so the onus to chase is shared out with other teams. Thomas de Gendt of course is always on the short-list when it comes to Lotto guys who are break candidates, he could well give it a go today alright. Jelle Vanendert is another too though, if he can get away in a break that fights it out over the last two climbs he could well have a chance, he's quite punchy and hasn't a bad sprint from a reduced group.
Cofidis could well try something similar and they might send Stephane Rossetto up the road, or maybe Jonas Van Genechten, he doesn't mind little hills like this and has a half-decent kick on him too. Pieter Weening was on the attack briefly late on today and he might try his luck on this stage too.
LottoNL Jumbo have three riders around 2 minutes back on the GC now, so maybe they will start stage hunting now? Victor Campanaerts might be one for them on a rolling course like this one, but there are no odds for him with anyone yet, I might have a go if I can get odds for him. They do have odds though for Stef Clement, he's 150/1. Clement is a vastly experienced rouleur who actually took a stage in this race 3 years ago on a stage for rouleurs where the break held on and he stole it from Rudy Mollard with Pieter Serry just behind. Pieter Serry could also have another chance this time, Quick-Step are now stage hunting too with Martin over 2 mins down on GC, and at 200/1 he's worth a nibble. He was in the break today of course, but it wasn't such a brutal day, he may try again.
And Alex Howes for Cannondale was another I wanted to have an interest, and he too is a nice price at 200/1. He's a resident of Girona and likes a day up the road, this could be one for him to have a go at. Cyril Gautier or Ben Gastauer are two more who could go up the road for AG2R, they will not be doing anything on the GC. Maciej Paterski is another who may chance his luck in the break, he's been in relatively good form and has been on the attack in Catalunya in the past,
I couldn't trust any of the sprinters here, we may not even see the same top 3 if it does happen to come back together, so I'd rather just scatter a few quid on longshots and see how they get on. Thomas de Gendt is short, but is more reliable than others when it comes to a day like this. Bet365 pushed him out to 33/1 fom 28/1 and that tempted me in.
Recommendations:
0.2pts each-way on Stef Clement at 150/1
0.1pts each-way on Pieter Serry at 200/1
0.1pts each-way on Alex Howes at 200/1
0.2pts each-way on Jonas Van Genechten at 125/1
0.5pts each-way on Thomas de Gendt at 33/1
0.2pts each-way on Pieter Weening at 66/1
0.2pts each-way on Maciej Paterski at 50/1 with Skybet
Matchbets:
Sbaragli to beat Cimolai - 2pts at 8/11
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Stage 5
Stage 5 - Valls to Lo Port (Tortosa)
Friday March 25th, 182km
What an absolute shit-show today, 60kms were knocked off the stage, so that fucked all our bets straight away as it was no longer a strong, roulerur type stage. We got a shit pointless break, a half-hearted attempt to stretch things out on the climb, so half-hearted that Froome and Valvere just got bored with all those around them, like the rest of us, and just took off on the descent. But depsite all the chaos going on out front, Nacer Bouhanni appeared near the front with 3kms to go and the result was never in doubt. Cimolai took a fine 2nd to add to his win from stage 1 and Daryl Impey was best of the rest. Pieter Serry, one of our picks, managed to finish 6th, despite being caught up in the crash that took Zakarin out with about 20kms to go.
Stage 5 finished in Valls last year, this year they start there and head south-west for most of the day before turning left and going south after around 90kms Before that though they will have tackled the Cat 2 Coll de Fatxes, a mountain that is around 20kms of a climb in total, but the categorised part is 14.4kms at an average of just 2.7%, but that average is brought down by two flat parts for about 3kms in total.
A quick descent, a little lump and then it's flat roads for the next 60kms as they head south through Deltebre and Tortosa and after 160kms they start on the final climb of the day, the pull up to Lo Port, an Especiale climb of 8.6kms that averages a tasty 9%, with ramps that hit up to 20%. The climb from the bottom is actually 22kms at an average of 4.4% though for it's entirety, making it longer than Terminillo in Tirreno-Adriatico, but the first 14kms are at a pretty leisurely gradient.
The last kilometre isn't so hard either as you can see in the profile on the right, easing back to around 4%, so if there are a small bunch come to the finish together it could turn in to a drag sprint to the line. It's a real climbers climb and should see time gaps that could shake up the top 10 again.
Shortlist - This looks perfect for Contador, if he doesn't attack at least 3 times on this climb, I'll be very surprised. But can he finish off the stage with a victory? It's very possible, but there are several others clambering to chase him down and break him. Chris Froome finally showed a card today, but breaking away down a descent doesn't tell us a lot about tomorrow. He hasn't shown a great deal on the climbing front this year, he needs to get some confidence in the legs and he'll be far better next time out.
Dan Martin? Why not, he should be part of the front group with 3-4kms to go and is capable of a big attack.Romain Bardet has been prominent and looks keen to try something, he was right up there at the front to La Molina and finished 4th, just behind Yates and also had a dig near the top of the Cat 2 climb, stretching things out just before Froome and Valverde jumped on the descent. He could try a long one here, maybe with 3-4kms to go, he may go with someone like Yates.
Tejay Van Garderen..might slip back a little but shouldn't lose too much time, and Valverde should be there or thereabouts too. Adam Yates looks to be in good shape, he might well round out the podium. For a big-priced outsider, Davide Formolo seems to be climbing well and might get some freedom to attack, at 66/1 he's worth a little bet on too.
Recommendations
2pts win on Alberto Contador at 9/4
0.5pts each-way on Adam Yates at 9/1 with Skybet
0.3pts each-way on Davide Formolo at 66/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Contador to beat Froome, Martin to beat TVG, Formolo to beat Carthy - 2pts on the treble at 7/5 with 365
Mollema to beat Soler - 2.5pts at 4/5
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Stage 6
Stage 6 - Tortosa to Reus
Saturday March 25th, 197.2kms
Incredulity - that's the word I think that sums up the general reaction to Alejandro Valverde winning that stage today in Catalunya, skipping away from Contador, Froome and Yates like they were Carlos Betancur. Ok, Froome is only starting to warm his season up and 'never goes well' here, and Contador isn't the force he once was, but the ease with which he accelerated away and continued to stretch the gap in the last kilometre was pretty incredible. Froome fought hard and even managed to pip Contador for 2nd, Yates was right there until about 2kms to go but cracked under the pressure from Contador and Valverde at the front, eventually coming home in 5th place behind Marc Soler who did an outstanding job for Valverde.
Tejay Van Garderen blew up today and lost nearly 2 minutes and with it the lead in the race, Movistar taking great pleasure in ripping the shirt off of his back I'd say. It's been a funny old week for BMC, from not winning the TTT, to whining and crying, to being awarded the TTT, to Hermans having a mare and losing the jersey, to him abandoning with sickness today and now TVG collapsing too. With De Marchi finishing dead last on the stage too, you wonder is there some bug going around the BMC camp or something.
Dan Martin got gapped but recovered well to chase them home in 6th and has moved up to 9th in the GC, but two riders who stand out in the top 10 are David Gaudu and Hugh Carthy who finished 7th and 8th. Gaudu in particular has had an amazing week, the 20-year old neo-pro was on the attack with Froome and Valverde on stage 5's descent and today he was finishing not far behind them in the top 10, moving up to 18th in the GC. He has a bright future ahead of him. And another cracking ride from McCarthy too, he's really coming on as a rider.
An interesting stage - it's lumpy and bumpy all day long, with a cat 3 climb that starts after just 10kms, a number of other uncategorised lumps over the next 70kms, but after 95kms they start climbing again and over the next 55kms they go over two Cat 3 climbs and the main obstacle of the day, the Cat 1 Alt de la Musara which is 11.6kms long at an average of 5%, with a max of 11%. It's a Cat 1, but not a terribly hard Cat 1 at just 5%, but with just 40kms to go from the top, expect a lot of action on it, be it from the break of the day or the GC men.
When they reach the KOM on the Musara, they run along a plateau for another 10kms or so before plunging down towards the finish. The last 2.5kms are all uphill though with a pull to the line that averages around 2% from 2.5km to 1.5km to go, with the last 200m kicking up to the line around 3%.
It really looks like a day for the break though, but if the race is still in the balance we may see the GC men attacking each other up the Cat 1 climb and a furious pace over the last 40kms.
So I thought that this would be a stage for the break, but I think I can honestly speak for the vast majority of us looking at the odds that no one has a clue as to what's going to happen and the odds are so shit it's hardly worth our while even trying to guess what the hell is going to happen. Thomas de Gendt 2nd favourite at 14/1? Are you kidding me?? It is an absolute lottery and I cannot honestly justify naming any rider I really think is going to win, it's dart-throwing time.
Pete Kennaugh 22/1? No thanks. Nacer Bouhanni 25/1? Insane. Gianluca Brambilla backed in to 12/1? What?? I really think it's almost a no-bet day, and the fact I'm going to be out at a paintball birthday party for my boy all day and won't be watching makes me even less interested in having a bet. But just to have a small interest, here are the riders I would have a tiny interest.
Jose Goncalves was on the attack two days ago, this could be another stage for him to have a go - 33/1. Pieter Serry was 125/1 two days ago, he's 28/1 for tomorrow's stage which is just crazy, but I'd like to be on him - if another bookie opens at 40/1 or bigger he might be worth a shot. Alexis Vuillermoz has been in the shadows of Bardet and Latour this week, but this could be a stage that might suit him. He was close to the front today as they hit the big climb with 15kms to go, looking after Bardet and Latour, but he might be let ride his own race tomorrow - 50/1. Bart de Clercq for Lotto Soudal could get a chance to get up the road too, be can climb and can punch, 100/1, let's have a tiny bet on him. And is it time for Ruben Plaza to finally show his face? We haven't seen him all week, but maybe he's been hiding away for this one which can suit him. He's 80/1
In the end Valverde will probably win a reduced sprint, or will attack and win solo by 3 minutes just to really rub it in all our faces. .But really, who knows what is going to happen, but I give the breakers a good chance now that the GC is more or less settled, so let's keep it small and see what happens. By the way, I may not have time to do a Gent Wevelgem preview as I am out most of tomorrow, I'll try to post something though...
Recommendations:
0.2pts each-way on Jose Goncalves at 33/1
0.2pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 50/1
0.2pts each-way on Bart de Clercq at 100/1
0.2pts each-way on Ruben Plaza at 80/1
If you can get 40/1 or bigger on Serry have 0.2pts each-way on him too
Matchbets
None interest me in this lottery
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Stage 7
Stage 7 - Barcelona to Barcelona
Sunday March 27th, 138.7km
The final stage, the customary run around Barcelona ending with eight laps around the city taking in eight ascents of the Alt de Montjuic. It can end in a sprint finish like last year when Valverde beat Bryan Coquard or it can end with a break winning, like when Lieuwe Westra won in torrential rain in 2014.
It's 2kms longer than last year's stage and they don't take on the Alt de Cobrera that they did last year just after the Ullastrell, but it's the last 60kms that count in this race, the frantic crit around the outskirts of Barcelona.
Another day of drama involving Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde today, attacking in the opening kilometres and completely destroying team Sky, with Chris Froome (who sat in 2nd place, just 21" behind Valverde) losing an astonishing 26'38". And not only that, 54 riders were either a DNF today or finished over the time limit, meaning there are only 114 riders will take to the start line tomorrow. It means that Marc Soler gets reward for his superb work all week for Valverde by jumping on to a podium spot in 3rd place, just 13" behind Contador. Adam Yates is up to 4th, TVG is in 5th and Dan Martin has leaped up to 6th place, but it will take a miracle now for him to make up the minute he needs to get on the podium.
This is another lottery stage - only 114 of the 200 riders who started are left in the race after the mass elimination today, so most teams are down on numbers - Trek for example only have four riders left in the race.. Movistar have 6, and they include the winner-elect Valverde and JJ Rojas who has had a tough week with the penalty for pushing that cost his team the TTT. Maybe now that the race is sealed up Valverde will lead out Rojas for a win to give him a happy ending to the race? It's certainly possible..
Daryl Impey won the sprint well today from Valverde after that crazy day in the saddle, he finished it off well but he didn't exactly beat much. Valverde is the favourite and you can understand why, he won this stage two years ago after all. He will have a big chance again but it could be a wild stage full of attacks and limited numbers of teams who are willing, or able to chase. Jarlinson Pantano was 3rd here a few years back, and now that Contador has no chance of winning the race (or does he, you'll never know with Contador!) maybe he'll let Pantano have a go on his own, he's been looking really strong all week.. and maybe his mum is still over here at the race, she was there a few days ago.. on mother's day, like Bennett in GW, maybe Pantano can deliver her a nice present.
Quickstep still have 7 of their 8 riders and they could shake things up too - Martin could attack on Mont Juic, Brambilla could (although his form looks really questionable now) and Peter Vakoc has the kind of power you need for the short burst up Mont Juic, he could go on the attack too in the last lap. And if it did come to a sprint, Arthur Vichot has a chance too, but the fact that he could only finish 3rd to Impey and Valverde today puts me off him.
No clue really as to what is going to happen tomorrow, but I'm going to have a small interest in Pantano and Rojas to finish off the week on a high.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Jarlinson Pantano at 16/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on JJ Rojas at 33/1 with Bet365
Matchbets:
No interest in any of them, they are all coin tosses
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Alt de Monjuic
Overall Contenders and Favourites
Apologies first of all for not getting this out before the race started, but time was against me and I concentrated on getting the St 1 preview out first, as I don't think much will change with the GC betting by tomorrow's stage, which is a crucial one.
Working through the bookies order of favouritism, the two firms who have priced up the race - Bet365 and Skybet, are both after making Alejandro Valverde their favourite. It's not surprising though as all the bookies copy each other these days, there is little or no imagination with actually trying to price their own book. So Valverde at 5/2 - worth a bet? He wears the no.1 bib as last year's winner Nairo Quintana has not returned this year to defend his title, so has the full Movistar team behind him.
And the crucial thing about that Movistar team is that it is a team full of powerhouses that can help give him a good head-start on some of the other climbers. Andrey Amador, Jonathan Castroviejo, Nelson Oliveira, Ruben Fernandez, JJ Rojas and even Valverde himself will be a very solid unit for the TTT, but also good support for him in the mountain stages. He has a chance of taking bonus seconds on stage 1, 3, 4, 6 and 7 as they are all finishes which could see him involved.
If he can do a powerful TTT and pick up bonus seconds on a number of stages he will go a long way towards winning this race. The problem for him might be the Especiale climb on stage 5, where he might struggle against some of the spritelier climbers, but he did pretty well on the toughest stage of Andalucia where he dug in and finished just 7" behind Pinot to help seal the overall win.
Second favourite is Chris Froome, leading a strong-looking Team Sky. We haven't seen Froome race since February 5th in the Herald Sun Tour, where he could only manage 6th place, over a minute behind Damien Howson. Froome has been training in South Africa, he has been training around Nice (he posted a quite funny selfie of himself watching the field go by in Paris Nice, moaning that he couldn't go home as they were blocking the road..). He has never done great in the Volta though, he struggled last year on the stage to La Molina, losing 12" and losing another 23" to Porte and Contador on the stage to Port Aine, and he eventually finished 8th, 46" back on Quintana.
His record here leaves you with nothing really to give you any confidence in backing him at just 3/1, it's too early in the season and not part of his master plan for peaking in July. Instead though, Geraint Thomas could also go well here, he's the 4th favourite at 7/1, the same price as Contador. Thomas is in good shape as we saw with his excellent win in stage 2 of Tirreno, when he caught them all on the hop on the run in to Pomerance. He eventually finished 5th overall, finishing it with a fine 8th place in the TT.
Sky should go well in the TT, they have a pretty strong team here for it, and he should go well on most of the climbing stages, he was climbing very well in Tirreno, taking 2nd on the Queen stage behind Quintana, well ahead of the likes of Pinot, Landa and Rohan Dennis. It's going to be hard for Thomas to gain additional time to beat the likes of Valverde or Contador who might take bonus seconds and stage time gaps, but if Sky get behind, like I think they should, Thomas could show just how well his Giro prep is doing - he needs to be laying down a marker here I think to get the confidence of the team behind him for his ambitious Giro tilt..
His team-mate Mikel Landa is yet another of the favourites, Sky have 3 riders in the top 6 of the betting, with Landa priced at just 12/1 too, it looks like the bookies are counting on Sky pulling off a big ride in the TTT to put them all close to the top of the GC ahead of the mountains. He went ok in Andalucia but lost a lot of time in the TT, but still finished 6th overall, his good showings in the first two stages helping. He was well down in 31st place in Tirreno, as he lost 41" to Quintana on the stage to Terminillo, but also lost a lot of time in the ITT, eventually finishing in 31st in the GC. His record here reads 33rd, 36th and 47th and I can't see anything really that would make me want to back him at just 12/1 for this race.
Alberto Contador was awesome again in Paris-Nice, attacking like only Contador knows how and he's sure to put on another show here in Catalunya, a race in which he has finished 2nd, 4th and 2nd in the last three years. He has a super-strong team with him here too for the TTT, with Matthias Brandle, Bauke Mollema, Jarlinson Pantano, Michael Gogl, Peter Stetina and Markel Irizar. They should do an ok time trial, they won't be winning it, but should be within 30" to a minute of the winners, putting him in with a shot at the podium.
He went well on the stage to La Molina last year, chasing home Martin, finishing just 2" behind him, and also went well on the following stage to finish with Porte, 15" behind Quintana. He's never won a stage in Catalunya though, which is surprising, but I think he will go well this week, the stage to Lo Port looks like one he could go well on, and his aggressive style might well see him do well on other stages like stage 6 to Reus or the stage to La Molina again.
Dan Martin likes this race - a resident of Girona, he knows the roads around here like the back of his hand and in the last 7 years he has finished 3rd, 10th, 16th, 1st, 4th, 2nd and 2nd, a fantastic record of results. His chances may well come down to the TTT again, like all the others, and he has a pretty decent team here with him to help him, although it wouldn't be the greatest Quick-Step TTT team. He has the assistance of Brambilla, Serry, De Plus, Schachman and Vakoc and young up and comer Remi Cavagna who could be a big help in the TTT, as he is a fine time triallist, as was shown by his 4th place in the TT in San Juan.
Martin could well win the stage to La Molina again, maybe taking back 5 or 10 seconds, with 10" more bonus. He could also go well on the Queen stage, but it may be that they lose too much time to the likes of Movistar and Trek in the TTT, so he will be up against it to win. A podium may not be out of reach though.
BMC have a few options for this race too based on the fact that they will probably, almost certainly win the TTT as usual. That will put them in a strong position with a number of riders in the top 10 going in to stage 3 and they have strength in depth to try a few cards. Shortest in the betting for them is Tejay Van Garderen at 9/1 and he's a rider who has finished 3rd and 5th here in the last three years. He's also won the stage to La Molina in 2015, leaving Porte, Contador and Martin behind. He also won the Queen stage in 2014 to Vallter 2000, a superb ride that saw him pip Bardet to the win, with Contador, Valverde and Quintana chasing him.
He hasn't really ridden well for me though since the Tour de Suisse in June last year when he won a stage and finished 5th overall, and he was particularly disappointing in Tirreno, losing 2 minutes to the likes of Thomas and Yates on the finish to Terminillo. I know that BMC will put him in a good position on stage 2, but I am struggling to recommend backing him at just 9/1 based on what we saw in Tirreno. Having said that though, there is no Quintana here though to blow things up, and the tough Queen stage climb to Lo Port, although steeper than Terminillo at 9% (Vs 7.1%), it is far shorter at 8.6% (Vs 16.5kms).
With a strong team around him he might do ok, maybe losing 20-30" there and he might ship 10" or so on La Molina, will he have enough of a buffer to lose 30-40" to other climbers? If he climbs like he did in Tirreno though he will lose a lot more than 30-40" so I can't trust him. Let's see what sort of buffer he has after the TTT and reasess his chances.
Team leader apparently, if you go by bib numbers, is Sammy Sanchez, yet he's over four times the price of TVG at 40/1. Sanchez will get the same lead as Tejay in the TTT, has he a better chance of better results on the climbing stages? He has finished 2nd in this race back in 2012 and has won two stages in his time, but it's been five years since he's even finished in the top 15 of a stage here or even in the top 40 in the GC, it's hard to see him changing that (although he should top 10 on the TTT you'd think unless it goes disastrously wrong).. Is he really the protected rider here? Will he be looked after and dragged up the climbs? I'm not sure, I think they have better options.
And their first better option is Ben Hermans.. If he rides like he did in Valenciana and Oman he'd have a big chance in this race. 2nd overall in Valenciana, he climbed well on the Queen stage, and although he lost 1'07 to Quintana, no one came close to Quintana that day, and he only lost 20" to Poels and finished ahead of Kruijswijk and Zakarin. He was excellent in Oman, winning on two climbing finishes, including the Queen stage to Green Mountain, and finished 3rd on the uphill pull to Quriyat.
He looks lean and lighter than I have ever seen him and will have had a massive shot of self-confidence and belief from his start to the season. I think that he will go well on La Molina, he has the punch to maybe stay near the front guys, and if BMC work for him on the Queen stage he will come close to the front too. He may even be able to pick up a result or two in some of the punchy finishes, like stage 6 to Tortosa with the uphill finish. At 18/1 he might be a good podium shout.
Rohan Dennis is their third (or is that fourth?!) option, and Dennis has also had an excellent start to his season, finishing 6th in the TDU and winning the Tour International La Provence with a power-packed final two days where he finished 2nd twice. 2nd in Tirreno, he topped and tailed the race with wins in the TTT and the ITT and rode well on the climbs too. He was right up there on the tough finish to stage 5 in Fermo won by Sagan, but shipped 1'17" to Quintana on Terminillo, no disgrace by any means, but he lost around a minute to the likes of Thomas and Yates.. If BMC take a minute off Sky in the TTT, will Thomas get it back again in the Queen stage here? If there was an ITT here instead of the TTT, I think Dennis would have a great chance, but he might just be a place or two off the podium here.
Adam Yates rode well in Tirreno too, taking a fine 3rd place in the Queen stage as I mentioned above, just behind Thomas. He showed good legs that day and should go well on the hills here too. That 3rd place lifted him in to 2nd in the GC and looking good for a podium finish in the race, but disaster struck the very next day when he was struck down with stomach problems and a fever that forced him to abandon the race. Curiosly, even though he was racing in a different country in Paris-Nice, his twin brother Simon was also struck down with stomach problems towards the end of that race but was able to finish in 9th place. He was supposed to do this race with Adam, but hasn't started.
Orica-Scott may not be the powerhouse of old in TTTs, but it's a pretty decent team they have here - Impey, Howson, Bewley, Tuft, Bewley, Edmonson, Plaza and Verona are all powerful guys here to help Yates get as good a start as possible. I worry though that he may not have recovered 100% from his illness, stomach issues and a fever can knock you out. He's not the greatest TT'er in the world himself and if he's down on power and struggling in the TT, they will have to wait for him and he could lose a fatal amount of time. I think he will need to be within 30" of the likes of BMC and Movistar to give him a shot at the podium, and I'm not sure they are capable of it.
Trek have a back-up option with Bauke Mollema, but really you think that he will only get a look-in if something happens to Contador.. He has been riding well, if a little under the radar this season, with a win in San Juan and then a 4th place in Abu Dhabi, thanks to an excellent 4th place on Jabel Hafeet, and 9th place in Tirreno thanks to 11th on Terminillo. Trek lost 58" to BMC that day though and 36" to Movistar, although only Brandle and Irizar are here from that TTT team. It looks a stronger team here than there, but they are still likely to lose over a minute, which will put Mollema on the back foot and of the two, it's Contador you'd have your money on to go on the attack to pull time back rather than Mollema.
After that you have the likes of Romain Bardet who will be dealt a 2 minute plus handicap in the TTT, ending his chances, Jacob Fuglsang, who has been very consistent this year, but will also lose a lot of time with that weak Astana TTT squad, same with Andrew Talansky and Cannondale, they're going to struggle too. Also - looking at what has just happened in stage 1, Pierre Rolland looks to have gone after the KOM jersey from the get-go, getting in the break of the day, so Cannondale will probably switch their focus to that now and Talansky will just be left to test himself out against this strong field for targets later in the season, even though is is reportedly a big target for him.
An outsider at a big price could be Steven Kruijswijk, as LottoNL Jumbo might just be able to pull off a respectable TTT here with the lineup they have brought. Campanaerts, Gesink, Lindeman, Clement, Bennett and Vermeulen are a strong bunch of rouleurs on a course like this and could well pull off a top 5 ride that could have Kruijswijk within a minute or so and as he won't be marked as much as the Sky, BMC and Movistar guys he might just slip away some day and steal back 30" or so. It's hard to really make a case for many others, Diego Rosa might get a chance to attack which could lift him up the ladder, as could Gianluca Brambilla for Quickstep or Jonathan Castroviejo or Andrey Amador for Movistar.
Conclusion
So it looks like it will probably all hinge on the TTT on the second stage then, making and breaking riders chances.. But as we saw in Paris-Nice, anything can happen in bike racing, especially when Alberto Contador is involved. I think Valverde is a good shout for a podium at worst as he will do well in the TTT and will pick up bonus seconds along the way, possibly even sealing it in the sprint on the final stage in Barcelona.
But there is no fat in the price for an each-way bet as he's just 5/2, and if he cracks like he did when Contador stepped on the gas on the Alto Pena Del Aguila in Andalucia, then he might not get back on with the quality of the climbers that are here.. no one will wait around for Valverde. And of course, he pulled out of Paris-Nice two days before the start with a fever, will it have affected him?
Froome I can't have, Sky are even saying that Thomas is the team leader (with Landa.....), but Thomas is going to have to find some time from somewhere to take out the BMC threat and the Movistar threat, as they are likely to finish ahead of him in the TTT. Dan Martin has a great shout I think of another podium, 22/1 offers value to have a shot at that, he may well make up 20-30" of deficit from the TTT to take a podium spot.
But BMC look to hold all the aces and I'm leaning towards Ben Hermans in a field full of question marks - his punchy style is suited to some of these finishes and the legs he showed on Green Mountain should keep him in contention on the Queen stage. It's hard to find a strong case to really get stuck in to any of the favourites here, but at least Hermans should have a head-start from the TTT and Dan Martin will attack.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Ben Hermans at 18/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 22/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Overall matchbets to come tonight if they price them up again.