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Published on Thursday, 26 January 2017 23:03

Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race 

Geelong, Australia

29 January 2017, 174kms

It is only the third year of the CEGORR but it has already moved up to a 1.HC classification, meaning that it is only one level off UCI World Tour level, allowing up to 65% World Tour team participation.

It means that this year's edition is probably the 'strongest' field to take to the start line yet and it should make for a good race. Gianni Meersman was the victor in the inaugural running of the race in 2015, from Simon Clarke and Nathan Haas, with Cadel 5th in his final ever professional race.

The man who finished 9th that day, just 7" back, was Pete Kennaugh, signalling his liking for this course. He returned in 2016 to take victory with a blistering attack in the final lap that no one wanted to chase down, until it was too late. Leigh Howard got up to take the sprint from a dramatically reduced peloton, with Niccolo Bonifazio back in 3rd. 

The courses for all races, which return unchanged in 2017, are designed by former professional cyclist Scott Sunderland, in consultation with Cadel Evans. Created with the time of season and stage of teams’ preparation in mind, it is a challenging and authentic one-day course that allows an attacking style of race, synonymous with the European ‘Spring Classics’ and providing a number of race scenarios.

Along with its beautiful scenery, a feature of the Elite Men’s course is three laps of the Geelong circuit, which closely follows the 2010 UCI Road World Championship course. With some of Victoria’s most spectacular coastal scenery as its backdrop, the elite men’s and women’s Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Races travel through the most beautiful and iconic areas of the Bellarine Peninsula, including Cadel’s favourite riding routes.

This year's race features many who took part last year, but the big draw this year seems to be the addition of Chris Froome, Richie Porte and Esteban Chaves, but I can't see any of those three troubling the podium spots. The race is more like a spring classic as described above, with punchy hills, coastal winds and a finale which gives late attackers a chance to steal it from the stronger sprinters. When's the last time you saw Porte, Froome or Chaves involved in the finish of a race like this?

The Route

They head south-east out of Geelong until Barwon Heads Road, the hometown of Cadel Evans, before doubling back on themselves and after 40kms they start heading south-west, through Torquay and along the coast where wind could start to play a part. 

If it hasn’t already, directional changes on the roads behind Torquay as the race moves into the Surf Coast provide the perfect opportunity for a breakaway to move away from the peloton. Then a long straight stretch across the marshes of Blackgate Road, Breamlee sees the riders exposed to the elements and wind again has a chance to play a big role in shaping the early action.

The rolling hills toward the coast are the first real challenge for the riders and a chance to test out the legs. The first King of the Mountain points are on offer as they climb their way across to Bells Beach. The action begins to heat up now. Briefly re-joining the Great Ocean Road, the race takes a turn north and heads along bushy Forest Road, a taste of the Australian bushland. Through Moriac and then historic Ceres, the race now approaches Geelong.

As they arrive in Geelong they start on the final circuit, but there's four laps, or 60.6kms still to go. The course has a pinch as it climbs its way out of Queens Park and up the road of the same name. A left turn and a further pinch up Melville Avenue, the race then turns left onto Aberdeen Street and a long fast descent down Deviation. The final climb of each circuit takes place up Hyland Road (600m at 5%, but gets steeper for the last 150m or so). This is the final chance for an opportunist to sneak away before the finish, this was where Pete Kennagh got away last year. The race travels through residential Geelong, past the Victorian houses along Church Street, over the Highway and onto the Geelong waterfront for the sprint finish.

Contenders

This race isn't hard enough or have enough long climbs for the likes of Froome or Chaves to gain an edge, it's more a race for puncheurs and strong sprinters as can be seen from the top 10 over the last two years. But it also obviously suits those who are neither puncheurs nor sprinters, as Pete Kennaugh showed last year. 

Riders who have gone well in the Aussie nationals as well as in the TDU will be to the fore and it's where most of my attention is going to be focused. 

Nathan Haas is a rider I fancy to go really well here - 3rd in 2015, 6th last year, he has been in great form this year so far. 3rd in the nationals road race behind Scotson and Gerrans, he nearly beat Gerrans in the sprint. He followed that up with two 5ths, a 9th and a 2nd in the TDU on his way to claiming an impressive 4th place overall. His performance on Willunga Hill was the one that stands out though, out-battling Chaves on the line, with a lot of good climbers well behind him.

He can play a patient waiting game and try to mark the late attacks and take his chance in a reduced sprint, but I've a feeling he'll be on his own well before the final stages of the race so will have to fend for himself. He opened at an incredible 50/1 with Paddy Power apparently, but that lasted milliseconds, by the time I got on he was 11/1 and then went 9/1 and has since settled down at around 7/1. Remarkably, for a guy that was so much bigger, I think there is still some value in him at 7/1, he has a good shot at a podium place. 

Sky come with a strong looking squad, but unless they can pull off another shock win with someone like Pete Kennaugh again, I can't see any of the others on the team winning. Chris Froome won't, Kenny Elissonde won't, Danny Van Poppel probably won't, so it may well be up to Kennaugh again, unless DVP can haul himself over the hills and give himself a chance in the sprint. (correction: Sky have not named Kennaugh in their starting team of 7)

Orica of course have a strong team here, and they could have breakaway candidates in Howson, Hepburn, Durbridge or Docker, but it is most likely that they will be all working to try to set up Simon Gerrans for the sprint. 5th last year, just ahead of Haas, Gerrans, as is often the case probably didn't really go for it once the win was already taken. Despite taking the sprint for 2nd in the nationals, I wasn't all that impressed with him in the TDU, he never came close to even making the top 10, yet alone a podium. He might be good enough for a top 10, but it would surprise me if he won. I'm not interested in him at just 12/1, and definitely not the 15/2 with Bet365.

Bora Hansgrohe are without Peter Sagan for this race, on a course that looks to be right up his street. Instead, they will be relying on Jay McCarthy, or possibly hoping that Sam Bennett can pull off a Meersman or a Bonifazio and hang in there for the sprint.

It will be hard for him, but he has gone well on hilly routes in the past and he did pull off a good win in the Melbourne warm-up criterium on Thursday, beating Van Poppel by quite a distance, with Ewan back in fourth. He was riding well in the TDU too, just came up against an unbeatable Caleb Ewan. If he can hang in there he has a big chance here too, but at 14/1 is he worth a bet with Bet365? He definitely isn't any value at the 7/1 with Paddy Power who make him favourite. 

BMC have Richie Porte here, fresh from his excellent win in the TDU, but this probably isn't a race for him.. Sure, he might be able to attack on Hyland Road like he did on Paracombe and Willunga, but it's going to be difficult to get away from the specialists on this kind of course. Even if he does get away it will be hard to hold off the chasers on the run in back to the finish. Miles Scotson will be a danger again if he can hang in there over the final hills, and Damiano Caruso or Rohan Dennis might go well too, but hard to see BMC leaving here with anything.

Katusha will probably be looking to attacks from Tiago Machado and Maurits Lammertink, but depending on how hard the race is they might look to either Jhonathan Restrepo or Baptiste Planckaert. Restrepo, the man with a first name that looks like a typo on his birth cert, went well in the TDU, finishing an excellent 10th for the 22 year old. If it's a hard race he could be one to feature in a reduced sprint. If Planckaert can hang in there though they will be riding for him for the sprint. Too many 'ifs and maybes' for me. 

Quickstep will probably look to Jack Bauer in this race, he has been active in the TDU stages, but didn't come close to troubling the podium on any occasion. Gianluca Brambilla looks like he is still to come in to form, his 34th place on Willunga and 40th on Paracombe says to me he won't be featuring in this race, his season will get going in about a month's time. Dries Devenyns or Martin Velits could try the break, and a fitter Petr Vakoc might have liked this finish, but he hasn't shown signs to me yet to say go back him. 

Lotto Soudal have a few candidates, but they are all long shots rather than hot shots. Thomas de Gendt or Lars Bak can try the early or late breaks, Rafael Valls might try something on the final hills, or if Sean de Bie can hang in there he might be one of the better sprinters left, he was close on a number of occassions in the TDU, taking a 5th, 7th and 12th. If he can hang in there, he could have a chance of podium here. 

I was going to say that Niccolo Bonifazio might have a chance based on his record here in the past and on how close he was coming to a stage in in the TDU, but Bahrain Merida aren't in the race! LottoNL-Jumbo might have a candidate in Enrico Battaglin, he was 9th here last year and has won races in the past with lumpy finishes, including a good stage win in the Giro in 2014. I think the team will be working to try to keep him up at the front, I can't really see any other winners in their squad, although Bert Jan Lindeman was on the attack in the Melbourne criterium on Thursday.. Battaglin at 50/1 has to be worth including in our bets with Bet365.

Cannondale-Drapac will probably be looking to TJ Slagter, his 10th place finish on Willunga was one that caught the eye to me, I think he is coming in to a bit of form. Otherwise, maybe Brendan Canty, Paddy Bevin or Will Clarke might try the breaks, early or late. 

Nic Arndt or Edward Theuns will have chances of course if they are there at the finish, it's getting to the finish will be the challenge for them, they might find the pace up Hyland Road a bit too much last time up if all the attacks start flying. Trek could also look to Koen de Kort or Jarlinson Pantano depending on how the race pans out, Pantano should be able to stay with the lead group and has a decent kick on him at the end of it to possibly take a reduced sprint. At 125/1 he might be worth an each-way.

AG2R will look to the late attack of Jan Bakelants to try to get something out of this race, I can't see any of the others being in the top 5. Cam Meyer might be one to watch out for in the break for Korda Menta Real Estate, but I'm not sure a break will make it unless it's a super strong one. 

And finally, it gives me great pleasure to preview the chances of Team Aqua Blue Sport, making their debut in a race like this! The new Irish team have certainly managed to put a great squad together for their debut in the big league, with a combination of seasoned pros and young and hungry up-and-comers. Not only do they have one of the most stylish kits in the business, but a refreshing and interesting story about them. And the other big plus of course is that they are 'from' Cork, my home town.. 

They bring an interesting team here that are sure to be involved at various points in the race - Big Conor Dunne or Calvin Watson could go in the early break - Dunne loves a long breakaway and it'll be hard to miss him if he does get involved (that's him on the left, taller than most of the guys on the step). Calvin Watson is a graduate of the Victorian Institute of Sport, and the former Junior Australian national champ was active in the early part of the Crit on Thursday, getting in the early break with Bert Jan Linderman and Lucas Hamilton. 

They also have Larry Warbasse and Aaron Gate who could try attacks later on (Gate went in the later attack in the Race Melbourne crit too, with the likes of Vakoc and Henao) but their main card will surely be Leigh Howard, a realistic contender for victory here. 2nd in this race last year, he would have won had Kennaugh not been let go. He outsprinted the likes of Bonifazio and Gerrans last year even though he was the only member of the IAM squad in the group of 19 that contested the sprint. If they can get him to the finish with the lead group, he would well podium. He looked a ridiculous price at 66/1 with Paddy Power when they opened, I took a small bet on that (as big as their coward odds compilers would allow) and he is now just 33/1 with PP, but just 22/1 with Bet365, so the 33/1 is still worth a bet I think.

So that's it, not a fantastic field by any means, but it should still be an exciting finish with opportunities to get away on Hyland Road, but it's most likely to result in a reduced bunch sprint finish. I'm going to go for Nathan Haas to be in the top 3, with outside chances for Enrico Battaglin and Leigh Howard, but I am thinking Sam Bennett might have a chance of hanging in there over the hills and if he does, he's my favourite to take victory.. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way at 7/1 on Nathan Haas with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way at 50/1 on Enico Battaglin with Bet365

0.3pts each-way at 33/1 on Leigh Howard with Paddy Power

1pt win on Sam Bennett at 14/1 with 365

Match Bets

Slagter to beat Restrepo - 2pts at 4/5 with Bet365

Bennett to beat Van Poppel - 2pts at 7/4 with Bet365

Battaglin to beat Bevin - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365

Haas to beat McCarthy, Gerrans to beat Tsatsevich, Theuns to beat Arndt and Howard to beat Planckaert - 2pts on the four-fold at 4.1/1 with Bet365