Who will win the Tour de France?

The 2013 Tour de France gets underway in Corsica on Saturday June 30th with Britain's Chris Froome the hot favourite to follow in fellow countryman Bradley Wiggins' steps and bring the 'Maillot Jaune' back for Team Sky. 

The 100th Tour promises to be an exciting one. Starting on the island of Corsica, it gives sprinters the chance to wear the yellow for the first time since the 60's with a sprinter-friendly first stage. After that it quickly gets interesting though with a few lumpy stages over the mountains in Corsica before a Team Time Trial in Nice on the 2nd July. 

A few flat stages follow along the coast before a rolling stage up to Albi on the Friday. Two tough Pyrennean stages follow before a transfer up to the north west see them take in a bunch of flatish stages before heading back to the Alps for what should be the deciding and very punishing final week. 

The stages could be broken down to the following categories - 

7 Sprint finishes (1,5,6,10,12,13,21)

3 'Medium Mountains' (3, 7,14)

3 Time Trials - 2 ITT (11, 17) and 1 TTT (4).

4 Mountain summit finishes (8,15,18,20)

4 Mountain stages with downhill run-ins (2, 9, 16, 19)

Two rest days between stages 9 and 15. 

The main Yellow Jersey contenders:

Chris Froome - 1.87 on betfair or roughly 5/6, biggest price with bookies 4/5, generally 4/6.

I made it clear what I thought about betting these sort of odds when laying Wiggo for the Giro. It is a ridiculously short price considering the challenge ahead of him, but without question he does look the outstanding candidate. Great form this year, great tour last year where he had to wait and sacrifice himself for el ego. Great team with Richie Porte as an outstanding lieutenant. But the tour will be won in the last week, not the first two weeks so I have layed him (bet against him) to start with at 1.85. I can't see that price shortening too much in the first week or two and anything can happen. Will reassess as it goes on.

Alberto Contador - 3.75 (11/4) on betfair after coming in for sustained support for the last two weeks, backed in from 4.5 (7/2). Generally 5/2, as short as 2/1.

To me Bertie is missing a certain 'something' these days.... Yes, he is, or rather was, an outstanding GC rider, but it seems pretty clear now that it was not pan y aqua that Bertie built his dominance on.. Having said that, despite only being at about '75%' in his prep races such as the Dauphiné his results this year read impressively: 4th overall in San Luis, 2nd overall in Oman, 3rd overall in Tirreno, 5th overall Pais Vasco and 10th overall in Dauphiné. So he definitely will be Froome's closest challenger it would seem. Got a good team and can Time Trial with the best, especially with a hilly TT to come. But I cannot see him 'gap' Froome to gain the time needed to win the Tour. A top 3 is likely, but I am looking elsewhere.

Joaquim Rodriguez - 24/1 on betfair, 20/1 generally, as short as 12/1(!)
Should have won the Vuelta last year but blew it and handed it to Bertie. The course is perfect for Purito this year with lots of hills and shortish time trials, with the hilly TT suiting him pretty well. He will lose 3 mins+ to Froome on the TTs but he could pull back 30 seconds here and there if things go well for him. And if Froome has a bad day, Purito could step up. A strong Podium contender again at 3/1, a bet I think that will go pretty close to landing.

Cadel Evans/Tejay Van Garderen - I have coupled these as I think anything could happen with BMC. Evans is 40s on betfair, TGV is 38s - and although that is almost no difference, it is interesting to me that it is TGV who is slightly shorter. I actually think TGV is a better bet of the two and a good bet for the overall. Evans really surprised me (and cost me with the top 3/6 lays I placed!) at the Giro, but I cannot see him pull out a similar performance so soon at the Tour. I think we will see a similar Evans to last year, getting dropped when it really gets fast on the steep ones. Instead, TGV I have backed with several weeks at 44s to win 4 figures. Clearly very strong last year, having to wait for Evans when he could have ridden away with the leaders, and is after stepping it up this year with an impressive win in the TOC, although competition was pretty light. I can see him getting the nod as team leader if it starts to fall apart for Cuddles.

Others:

Nairo Quintana - would have been interested in the 150/1 he was about 3 months ago, but not at the 40/1 he is now (or the 25/1 with most other bookies). I think he will do very well in this years tour, but I can see him having to work for Valverde and maybe concentrating on fighting for either the Polka Dots or White Jersey so I am not backing him. Valverde I think just isn't good enough to trouble the top guys even if he has probably the best team in the race (don't tell Sky..).

Jurgen Van Den Broeck - have hit the post with him last 2 years for the top 3 as he finished 4th twice. Can he go a little better this year and challenge the big boys? Well, his form would suggest no, he doesn't have a great team for the mountains (and they are going to be working for Greipel for green too maybe) so it will be hard. But he has focused his year on the Tour, his Time Trialling is good and getting better and he could just pull off a surprise. I had a small bet on him at 75s in April, he is 220/1 now!! so it would be rude not to have some more at that price, have him to win 4 figures too..

Daniel Martin - ok, he is probably not going to win it, but this is a patriotic bet that actually could give me a real run for my money. A brilliant early season with that fantastic win in the Vuelta a Catalunya and his awesome ride in the LBL had me backing him at an average 188/1 - he is around 66/1-100/1 now. He can climb with the best and his confidence and experience has surely shot up this year. Not a bad time triallist, he will though probably have to get in a break and gain time on Froome. My biggest winner money wise, I will be screaming him home for the next 3 weeks..!

Richie Porte - if Froome wasn't here, he could well win it himself. Super impressive in Paris Nice, he is a superb time triallist, will love the hill TT and can climb very well too. But Froome is here, and unless it goes tits up for him he will be super domestique, so not bet (20/1 generally).

So that is the Maillot Jaune - Froome probably will win but I'm happy to take him on for now. Contador will probe and jump around but will not get away and will probably finish in the top 3. The third step of the podium is the hardest one to guess I think, with Purito just shading it from TGV, VDB, Valverde, Quintana, Porte, Martin, Evans and Mollema filling out the top ten.

And yes, no mention of Andy Schleck or Nicholas Roche, neither have a chance unfortunately.