Santos Tour Down Under 2016

Stage 2 

Unley to Stirling, 132kms

Wednesday 20th January 

A great start then with Ewan doing exactly as I expected after being delivered by Daryl Impey with 300m to go. He took a brief ride on Renshaw's wheel, who had started early, and then shot past them all like a rocket. It was a very impressive sprint from Ewan who was Cav-esque in his low aerodynamic positionining and brutal acceleration.

I did say that Renshaw had a chance given the opposition but was put off by his price, he took a fine runner-up spot. Wippert came from a long way back to snatch 3rd from a gaggle of riders including Kump, Blythe, Nizzolo, Swift and Van Hoff. Swift could count himself unlucky to not finish higher as Blythe closed the door on him as he tried to come past in the last 100m forcing him to ease up. Martinelli took 16th to finish two places ahead of De Koert to also land the match bet. AG2R did get a man up the road, but it was the wrong one in Gougeard, was hoping it would be Bagdonas!

Stage 2 is almost a replica of the second stage last year, going from Unley to Stirling, but this year's stage is 18kms less than last year's at 132kms. Unley to Stirling is a very popular route for the TDU, and Stirling has been used as a finish for stages almost every single year. Unley is a suburb of Adelaide, and after some 6kms of a neutral zone they hit the course proper at Glen Osmond and after just 13.8kms they hit the only KOM of the day at Carey Gully.

After just 22kms they get on to the circuit around Stirling, a circuit of 22kms that they do a total of five times, going over the climb to the finish line in Stirling a total of six times.The climb up to Stirling is in two parts with the total distance from the bottom of the climb being about 8kms. The first part is about 5kms long, then they descend for around 1.5kms. The final kick though is 1.3kms long at an average of 7.1%, but the gradient average is deceptive as there are several steep sections which hit 12-14% around half way up. It eases slightly about 100m from the line to just 2.8% but by then the winner is more than likely to be a little (or maybe even quite a lot) ahead and clear like Diego Ulissi two years ago who landed the odds for me at 8/1.

JJ Lobato took the victory last year, stealing it from my 8/1 selection Daryl Impey in the dying strides, Impey had gone just a little too early and just couldn't hold on. It's always an exciting finish and it can be hard to get right, go too early and you can get passed before the line. Go too late and you may not be able to catch the guys who are ahead.

Again, it's a rolling course like on stage one and one that invites a break to go early on in search of the KOM points after just 13kms. Last year it was Thomas de Gendt, Campbell Flakemore and Cameron Meyer who got away early on but were pulled back in time to allow the uphill sprinters fight it out again. 

Preview and Predictions

 There are plenty of guys in with chances on today's stage, it's actually quite open as the betting suggests. There are lots of former winners, those that have come very close to winning and those with ambitions of getting up there this year. I can't see a break making it, there are too many teams interested in winning this stage, and the time bonuses are crucial for the likes of Simon Gerrans and their hopes for winning the GC.

Gerrans of course will be fancied to pull off a big result, he has gone well on this hill before, finishing 4th in 2011, 3rd, but 2nd in the sprint behind Matthews (William Clarke won solo) in 2012 and 2nd behind Diego Ulissi in 2014. He faces only Diego Ulissi of the guys that have beaten him on this hill, there's no Matthews, Clarke, Greipel or Goss here this year. Daryl Impey came very close to winning here last year for me, just being pipped by JJ Lobato, he just faded in the last 50m. If he can do something similar this year, racing around the bend in to the final 200m with Gerrans on his wheel, Gerrans has a great chance of coming around him and snatching the win.

If Gerrans isn't in good enough shape or is badly positioned, Daryl Impey could even try himself again, he's a tempting price at 33/1 to have a saver on. The mood in the camp will be buzzing now they got their stage win and the leader's jersey, but could that change the way they approach the stage? Will they be more interested in looking after Ewan and trying to retain the jersey? Ewan isn't without a chance either on a stage like this, he won a superb sprint in the Vuelta last year on an uphill finish to Alcala de Guadaira. That stage finished on a hill that averaged around 5% for the last 800m, he managed to outsprint Degenkolb, Sagan and Drucker to spring a surprise.

But what is the team plan? It appears to be all-in for a Gerrans GC victory now, and if that's the case he will need the time bonuses that come with the sprint finish today. So Ewan might have to do a job for the team today and help with the leadout. The other thing to consider is that OGE did a huge amount of work today in very blustery conditions and some of them looked quite spent at the finish. They should be ok though on just the first racing week of the season, and they should find they get help from other teams today seeing as it's a bit more open.

One of those teams should be Lampré-Merida as they have a big chance with Diego Ulissi, winner of this stage in 2013. Ulissi came back from his ban last year to land a stage win in the Giro but otherwise had a relatively quite return to racing. Will he be the Ulissi of two years ago and can he take the stage again? I'm not sure he's the Ulissi of two years ago but it is still possible he could take a stage like this. The bookies aren't taking any chances with him, PP have him as their 6/1 joint second favourite with Lobato.

Juan Jose Lobato won here twelve months ago, so comfortably he even had time to make a 'call' on his hand in a nod to his mobile phone company sponsors. His late burst was impressive to come past Impey when it looked like Impey might hang on, as you can see in the video above. Lobato had some great results last year, but almost all his best results were on uphill sprint finishes. He took 2nd in stage 7 of the Giro behind Ulissi and ahead of Gerrans and a bunch of other top 10 finishes including two stage wins in the Vuelta a Andalucia.

He hasn't started great in Australia, not close enough to challenge for the People's Choice sprint and way off the pace in 23rd place in stage 1, although that is probably down to it being Rojas's day to sprint as he took 9th place. He was 7th on stage one last year though, so it might be that he is not 100% this year yet. He's 5/1 joint favourite and that might look like a huge price if he repeats last year's success.

Geraint Thomas is next in the betting at just 14/1 and I just can't have him at that price. Yes, he's improving year on year and on a very good day he could be challenging here. He did finish 4th here in 2013, but the fact you had guys like Ponzi, Pietropolli and Santoramita in the top ten shows that it wasn't the best field to take to the start line here. He was 15th here last year and even though he will need to try to take bonus seconds here if he has designs on the overall victory, I think he will finish in a similar sort of position.

Patrick Bevin is an interesting one - he is 5th in the betting at 14/1 also, a ridiculously low price considering he is a relative unknown, but Bevin is a very good rider. He's only 24 years old but had a huge season last year when riding for the Avanti team. He finished 2nd overall in the Herald Sun Tour, winning the stage which finished up the hill to Arthurs Seat. He also won a stage and finished in the top 6 in four of the other five stages in the Tour of Taiwan and had the franky insane run of results in the Tour of Korea where he won a stage and finished 2nd five times and 3rd on one stage, being beaten by Ewan four times and Wippert once. He also won two lumpy stages of the Rás in Ireland in 2013, again on uphill finishes.

The potential he showed has earned him a pro contract with Cannondale and in his first ride in their green kit he won the New Zealand ITT title a few weeks back so is clearly in good form. Even though he was working for Wippert today, and probably had his mind on tomorrow's stage, he still had the strength to finish in 13th today, just metres behind the race for 2nd. He will have Simon Clarke, Moreno Moser, Michael Woods and probably last man, Wippert working for him and if he can time it right and get in a good position with 500m to go (say, on Gerrans or Ulissi's wheel) then he has a real chance at a big result.

Sergio Henao, 14/1, too lightweight, and he doesn't seem to normally get going until late February. Rohan Dennis is an interesting one, if he is team leader and is going for the overall victory, he has to finish close. There could be gaps form on a finish like this and he doesn't want to lose time. Porte and Wyss should haul him in to position, but I can't see him outsprinting the favourites. 5th to 10th at best for me. Jarlinson Pantano may be of the climbing type, but he is able to sprint too. An example is his 2nd place behind Albasini in stage 2 of the Tour of Romandie last year, he was ahead of guys like Alaphilippe and Haas. In the Vuelta a Catalunya last year he also finished 4th in the sprint on the final stage in Barcelona, behind Valverde, but ahead of the likes of Rojas, Pozzovivo and Porte. He is 20/1 with PP, which isn't a great price, but he could be involved. I think he might have to settle for 5th to 10th also though.  

Luis Leon Sanchez would have been in my thoughts for a stage like this two years ago, not any more. Nathan Haas could get involved, as could Simon Geschke, and Rein Taaramae might look to stretch his legs ahead of the climbing to come and could get in the mix. Pim Ligthart likes an uphill finish too and was available at a massive 200/1 this morning with Paddy Power apparently, but they were win only and instantly cut him to 33/1, which is too short now. 

Lots could be involved, but at the same time, it's likely to be fought out between about ten likely candidates. Gerrans to me has to take a big result today and should be ready for this. His team are strong and he has previous, he is worth a small bet at 5/1. Lobato should be right up there, but I'm not all that keen to back him at that price, instead, I'm going to pluck for the outsider Patrick Bevin who could use his power sprint to take a big win for New Zealand and Cannondale. 

Update - 19:45 - Bet365 have finally pulled their finger out and have priced up today's stage, they are very short on Lobato at just 7/2, with Ulissi and Gerrans also very short at 4/1. Bevin is 20/1 so take that instead of the 14/1 with PP if you haven't backed him yet and want to. Ligthart is 66/1 and that has peaked my interest to have a small bet on him too. Pantano at 40/1 is almost tempting me too, but I'll stick to him in a match bet with LL Sanchez. I'm also backing Taaramae in a match bet with Meintjes who will be working for Ulissi - 5/6 sounds ok to me for each of them.

 

Recommendations:

 1pt win on Simon Gerrans at 5/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Patrick Bevin at 14/1 with Paddy Power

 0.2pts each-way on Pim Ligthart at 66/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets

1.8pts win on Jarlinson Pantano Vs LL Sanchez at 5/6 with Bet365

1.2pts win on Rein Taaramae to beat Louis Meintjes at 5/6 with Bet365

 

 

Stage 3 

Glenelg to Campbelltown, 139kms

Thursday 21st January 

I slept through my alarm for the TDU stage last night, woke up to a mix of good/bad news. Good news is Jay McCarthy, our 66/1 GC longshot is now leading the race after beating Ulissi by centimetres. The bad news is that I completely overlooked him for the stage, despite bigging him up in the overall preview.. He was 66/1 for the stage.. Pim Ligthart gave it a go inside the last 500m, but was swamped by the sprinters, Paddy Bevin was unlucky finishing 6th after some good work by the Cannondale boys. He said afterwards he had to go three times in the last kilometre - first because he was held up a little by Gerrans' crash, secondly because he was pinched up by the barriers as riders came across and finally for the sprint. He said they were mistakes that he would learn from... McCarthy has been cut to 15/2 for the overall win though with Ulissi in to 9/1.

It was good to see some of the quotes from McCarthy afterwards though, he made it clear that he had big GC ambitions before the race and the team are fully behind him and he hopes to continue riding well for the rest of the week.. 

“The team supported me fully and I've also been given a chance to go for GC this week as well. It’s great to come out and get the victory today but the week is not finished and I hope to recover for Corkscrew tomorrow. There’s a lot of work ahead of us but I hope to keep getting more results."

“I was lucky enough I had a good nationals a week ago and already before the nationals the team had given me the opportunity and I had prepared to come here as a leader. That was some extra motivation in my pre-season training and I am glad that it's sort of paying off and I hope I can keep holding this sort of form throughout the week. I was hoping for a top five overall this year, I know I had some good training coming in and I felt like I had some good form so to come out with the victory today. I am not done for the week, so hopefully I can keep working hard and go for my goal and hopefully even be on the podium at the end of the week.

Gerrans was unfortunately held up by the crash in the last 500m which put paid to his chances, but he did pick up bonus seconds out on the road to move him in to 3rd place, just 5" behind McCarthy and is still the 3/1 favourite to win the race. Judging by the tweet from Nathan Haas, Gerro was on Impey's wheel and Impey was taken out, which is a real shame as Impey would have done a brilliant job probably to deliver him to the front with 100m to go. Just 1" behind Gerrans is Rohan Dennis after he rode very well to take 3rd in the sprint and with Porte finishing down in 58th place it looks at the moment like I might be right with regards to who is team leader this week.. Long way to go yet though as they say, and maybe Porte is waiting for Willunga Hill again to give it everything he's got.

Stage 3 starts in Glenelg on the coast of Gulf St Vincent and after an initial climb out and away from Glenelg in the neutralised section up to Marion, the road then descends for the next 18kms to Old Noarlunga. From there the road starts to climb, back up to Stirling again, peaking out around 500m at the 73km mark. After 60kms of rolling roads they arrive at Castambul and take a sharp left at the foot of the climb of the day up Corkscrew Road.

Corkscrew Road is another favourite with the TDU, featuring regularly and the last 23kms or so are exactly the same as the finish of Stage 3 in 2014 won by Cadel Evans in superb style, landing the odds for me at 7/1 and 10/1. He attacked away from Richie Porte on the climb and got over the top with 17" to spare, holding on comfortably on the downhill run to the finish as you can see in the video below.

The climb of Corkscrew Road was also used in 2013 when the stage finished in Rostrevor, the stage was won by Geraint Thomas who attacked on the climb and outsprinted his breakaway companions Javi Moreno and Ben Hermans. It's a tough little climb that later in the season probably wouldn't cause as many problems as it does to fresh and unfit riders starting out their year. The fitter, stronger riders generally ride away from the pack and it is a finish that is usually fought by a solo rider or small group. 

As Matty White put it, the finish is fast and furious:

"It's a relatively flat stage but what happens in the final 15 minutes is crucial with a very fast run in down the gorge, then we turn off to the left and you have the Corkscrew climb which the riders will be hitting at warp speed. It's where the climbers get a chance to show off how their off season has been going."

"The pure climbers are whom you'll see on the Corkscrew as it's hard enough and long enough that it does break up considerably. It's a stage we can't afford to lose time on. The interesting thing with the Corkscrew stage is that from the top of the climb to the finish line is not very far and you have a very fast tricky descent immediately after the KOM and once it flattens out you are still slightly descending all the way to the finish line."

"No teams have the chance to get organised as it's 10 minutes between the top of the Corkscrew and the finish, the race is blown to pieces on the climb, and finding your teammates and getting a chase organised is very, very difficult. Everyone who wants to win the tour doesn't want to lose time and they would hopefully have a teammate with them who can nullify any late attacks."

It's massively disappointing that no bookmaker as of 5.30pm had a market on this stage, a really poor show once again by them. Let's hope this isn't a sign of things to come for the rest of the season. I was in two minds whether to publish my thoughts now as I am going out to Ned Boulting's Prostate Cancer Season Preview charity event later, and don't want to skew their prices before (if) they do decide to release some prices later on, but as I've put the work in, and Bet365 have just come out with their prices, here it is...

So who are we looking at here then? A climber who can either go solo like Evans did or a small group of the strongest climbers who will fight out the finish between them? Let's look at the likely candidates to get over the top of the climb in the first 30 or so, I think after that there will time gaps that are too big to close up in the charge to the finish, it'll be every man for himself and they won't be able to organise a cohesive chase.

Looking at today's result, Rohan Dennis is indeed looking in great shape. He should have the whole BMC team pulling for him now and it's a pretty strong team behind him. It's a bit worrying looking at his result here from 2014 when he lost over 4 minutes, but this is a very different Dennis today than in 2014. And don't forget, he was blown off his bike in the Nationals TT race just before the TDU so could have been feeling the effects of that still. Too short at 7/1 though

Last time up here in 2014, Diego Ulissi finished 2nd in the sprint behind Evans, so he showed back then that he is capable of getting over a climb like this with the main protagonsists. Again, though, the question is, is he the same Ulissi as 2 years ago? I would have said no prior to his near-miss today, but seeing that ride, I think he might well be there or even stay close enough that he can possibly get back on on the run to the finish.. He'll have to be less than 10" behind cresting the summit though I think to do that. Simon Gerrans would be similar - on a good day he could be ok and would be a big challenger to win the sprint at the finish, but even though he is saying that he's uninjured after the crash today, it's hard to know if it will affect him. He finished 5th in that sprint in 2014 behind Haas and Ulissi. He's the 7/2 favourite for today and although I'd like him to win for the overall, I can't back him for this at that price.

Winner of the sprint for 2nd in 2014 was Nathan Haas, and he is a rider who has a big chance tomorrow I think. He is going well at the moment, judging by his 4th place finish in the Nationals and also he was in with a chance it seems on last night's stage until the crash. He tweeted "It's a shame Impy got taken out in that sprint! Was on Gerro's wheel and felt very very fast. Missed the chance:( but tomorrow is a new day" He beat an in-form Ulissi in the sprint last time around and went on to finish 7th on Willunga Hill to finish 5th overall on GC. I not only think he has a big chance at taking the stage, but he could also be in with a shout at a good GC placing if he can win tomorrow's stage. I was hoping for bigger, but the 14/1 with Bet365 had to be taken. Plus a small bet on him (0.3pts each-way) for the overall at 28/1 with Ladbrokes.

Jay McCarthy is clearly in superb shape, to make that burst for the line as early as he did and then hold off a charging Ulissi was seriously impressive. After a great ride at the Nationals where he had no problems with the multiple ascensions of Buninyong he should be ready for this. If he gets over the top with the lead group he has a great chance of another victory, or at the very least gaining some more bonus seconds at the finish.

Domenico Pozzovivo would be one of the best climbers at the race but doesn't always feature too prominently. He rode very well today though to avoid the crash and take a decent 12th place. Can he get away from these guys and solo to the finish? It's unlikely, but he should feature in the top ten I think. Sergio Henao for Team Sky is a similar rider to Pozzo, he should be one of the stronger climbers and could go on the attack, but will he be able to hang on until the finish? I'm not so sure either. And another rider who is in the same mould is Julian Arredondo, who took 11th place today in the sprint, it looks like he has decent legs to be that close to the front in the sprint. He could go on the attack too, hanging on is a different matter.

Jarlinson Pantano is another who should be right up there and could be one of the better sprinters if it is a small group of climbers that make it to the finish. Geraint Thomas won here in 2013 after escaping with Javier Moreno and Ben Hermans, and finished with the lead group in 2014. Pete Kennaugh said in an interview after today's stage that the plan was to get G in place for a shot at the win but he was held up behind the crash. Kennaugh also said the plan for todaywas for the team to get him, Henao and Thomas in position at the bottom of the climb for them to give it a go. Kennaugh was supposed to work for G today, I think he and Henao will work for G  as G has more of a chance of taking sprint bonus seconds. Not sure he can win it though..

Richie Porte could also go well on a stage like this, again it will depend on whether he is there to haul Dennis over the top with the leaders or not, but it will be a big ask for him to win a small sprint or solo to victory. They may well be waiting for Willunga with him. It's interesting to see that Paddy Power still make them 4/1 co second favourites, I'd have thought after last night's result they may have moved apart a little.

Petr Vakoc took a brilliant win in the Tour of Britain stage 2 last year to Colne, attacking on the last climb of the day out of the breakaway and doggedly held the gap from the chasing pack. He demonstrated enormous power that day, holding them off on the descent to the finish in Colne and the uphill pull to the line. He also signalled what sort of shape he is in this week too with a fine 5th place in the sprint last night. He said afterwards that he is feeling really good and that he knows he can go better, as he had some problems in the run-in - "Unfortunately I was a bit blocked at the roundabout with around 1.5 km to go, and then with less than 1 km to go, there was a crash in front of me, which made me lose a few metres or so. So I started to sprint in the last few hundred metres, and I eventually came in 5th place. But under these circumstances, I am really satisfied." He could be a dark horse for this stage at a big looking 33/1, and for the overall.

So many scenarios, so many in with chances. I'm going to plump for a few longshots but you can't rule out a solo attack that spoils it all!

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Recommendations:

Nathan Haas - 0.5pts each-way at 14/1 with Bet365 

Petr Vakoc - 0.5pts each-way at 33/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Nathan Haas for the GC at 28/1 with Ladbrokes

 

 

Stage 4 

Norwood to Victor Harbor, 138kms

Friday January 22nd

Another shortish stage at just 138kms, starting again from the suburbs of Adelaide, this time in the eastern town of Norwood. After a short neutral section the road starts to climb almost immediately up the iconic South Australian climb of Norton Summit road. The climb is one of the most popular of Adelaide's hill climbs, climbing 292m over 5.4kms, averaging 5%. It starts pretty steep, around 7-8% on a pretty poor road surface, but levels out a bit after 400m or so. It winds through switchbacks and rises up above Adelaide, giving some fantastic views across the Gulf on a good day. 

The last 500m or so ease off to only around 3-4% and once over the top they set off on a jagged descent that goes on for almost 85kms. The Strava KOM for the climb is held by Damien Howson of Orica-Greenedge, but seeing as the climb comes at the very start of the stage and not at the end when speeds will be high it's unlikely that he will lose the KOM on this occasion.

After around 65kms though the road starts to level out around Strathalbyn and they head towards Currency Creek and Goolwa. At the 115km mark they turn inland at Port Elliot and take on the KOM climb of the day of Crows Nest Road. Crows Nest Road is a pretty steady climb that has mostly long straight sections, and averages 6% over its 3.9kms distance (Strava section here). The climb is in two parts, the first part is pretty easy, averaging just 3.8% for 2.4kms. The last 1400m of the climb kicks up a lot harder though, averaging 9.4%, hitting gradients of over 11% in the last kilometre. Once at the top, the road runs along a plateau for around 8kms as they join Victor Harbour Road and start heading back towards Victor Harbor. 

After descending for around 9kms they go over one last hill with 6kms to go as they hit the long drag up Armstrong Road - it's not difficult at all and on a wide open road, but could well see attacks come, either from a small group that had escaped on the Crows Nest, or from the peloton if things had got back together. After descending back down to the harbour, the last kilometre is pretty straight and flat but they go through a number of roundabouts which could cause some issues, but the road is wide and well surfaced.

It will be an interesting stage to try to figure out - the climb of the Crows Nest isn't the hardest or longest climb in the world, but if it's raced really hard by the stronger guys it could cause a split. Then there will be the chase along the plateau and back down the descent towards the finish before the final climb up Armstrong Road. If the sprinters teams can keep it together though we could see a sprint finish on Hindmarsh Road. Another key factor to keep in mind though is that the weather conditions can play a big part in this race. It will be either a head cross-wind or tail cross-wind and if it's blowing a gail, as it often is when they go to Victor Harbour it could cause problems and splits. How the race is ridden by the likes of OGE will depend on how they are going in the GC. If they are leading, they will protect the jersey. If not, then they may look to control it and set it up for Ewan in the sprint.  

Update - 21/01, 17.45 - Well that was an exciting finish yesterday wasn't it? The race was blown to pieces on Corkscrew but a number of guys stood out for various reasons. Simon Gerrans - take a bow son. After crashing the day before he showed just how good his legs are, and how he may well have landed the bets for us if he hadn't been brought down. He came from a mile back to mug Dennis on the line. Dennis - fantastic racing once again, nearly won the stage. Richie Porte - I think it is now pretty obvious what I warned about before the start, Porte is Dennis's Domestique-de-Luxe this week, I hope I put some of you off backing him.. He softened them up on the climb, Dennis rode tempo and let Gerrans and McCarthy to the chasing and then chased and paced Dennis to the finish..Although, of course, it isn't over yet and he could repeat his win on Willunga again tomorrow, he is only 15" back after all...!

Michael Woods - I was kicking myself afterwards that I hadn't picked him, I spotted Vaughters had tweeted yesterday about Woods "Today is a big day for him" - so they obviously knew he was going to have a go. He was bloody impressive though, what a story it would be if he was to win it, earning his first Pro Tour contract at 29 years of age. Henao - gave it all he had, got a gap, but didn't get away and couldn't shake Woods. Willunga is an easier gradient, I think that was his chance gone there. Jay McCarthy was superb once again, leading the pack at the bottom of the hill, chasing attacks down, and then sprinting to 4th place, almost taking some bonus seconds. Haas unfortunately struggled in the heat, Vakoc missed the break.

On to this stage then.. a conundrum with that finish. And a conundrum with the race being as tight as it is and Willunga tomorrow night. Ladbrokes opened with Ewan the evens favourite, and as this is being described mainly as a 'stage for the sprinters', and despite the fact that Ewan is clearly the best sprinter here, I wasn't interested in that price. Can he get over the Crow's Nest if teams like Cannondale (with Woods, Bevin, Moser etc hammering it), Trek (for Nizzolo), Tinkoff (for Blythe) and Sky (for Swift) drill it hard up the 11% sections? And if he's dangling, will OGE wait for him with Gerro in the Ochre? And even if he gets to the finish, is it not possible that he will be asked to lead out Gerrans in search for time bonuses ahead of Willunga? 

Too many questions for me.. And the final question was one that got me interested - Gerrans was a massive 60/1 with Ladbrokes for the stage as they assumed that OGE would be working for Ewan.. I just thought that was way too big given the points above so had a bet on him. He has been slashed to 25/1 now, but that's probably still worth a small investment. He's evens favourite now for the GC, so it's looking ok for us, Jay McCarthy is currently making it a 1-2 for us, JayMc is flying too and could well hang on to his podium spot. 

Looking at Paddy Power's prices they had Pelucchi as the 4/1 2nd favourite, he went home two days ago.. Wouter Wippert was 6/1 with PaddyP but is 10/1 with Ladbrokes and that looks a decent bet, he is clearly one of the fastest guys here and Cannondale seem to be getting their act together. Giacomo Nizzolo has been doing his usual, letting his backers down, finishing 6th on stage 1 after finishing 2nd in the People's Choice Classic. He may well podium today, especially if Ewan has been dropped, but 5/1 is a risk I think. 

Adam Blythe rode well in the People's Choice and in stage 1, but he looks like a 5th to 10th place man to me. Same for Ben Swift, although if the sprinters are under pressure because of the climb, he would be one that can get through without much of a problem. Marko Kump is 20/1 with PP and 28/1 with Ladbrokes, Lampre will be gutted with Ulissi being beaten by McCarthy in Stirling, they might give it everything for Kump who seems to be riding well - he came from a long way back on Stage 1 to finish 4th. 

We might get a break, it might make it, but I doubt it. It will probably come down to a sprint with most, if not all of the sprinters, but there is a possibility that we might be missing some. Gerrans was worth a shot, but Wippert has a chance at a podium at a decent looking 10/1.

 

Recommendations:

 Simon Gerrans - 0.25pts each-way at 60/1 with Ladbrokes (take 20/1 or so if still available)

0.5pts each-way on Wouter Wippert at 10/1 with PP (he's 14/1 with Bet365, take that instead..)

 

Matchbets

Nizzolo to beat Blythe - 1.2pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Dennis to beat Henao - 1pt at 8/11 with Bet365

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 5 

McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill, 151.5kms

Saturday 23rd January

Well that couldn't have worked out much better now then could it. Almost exactly as I predicted, most of the sprinters were dropped on the final climb which was a lot harder that some (i.e the bookies) realised. Ewan was dropped, as was Kump, Van Hoff, Renshaw and de Korte. So too unfortunately was Wippert. But Gerrans wasn't and looked incredibly strong, calm and in control for almost all of the last 8kms or so. Sky worked hard for Swift who was up there too, but hitting the last 300m Daryl Impey did an incredible job to haul Gerrans to the front and release him with 100m to go. Swift tried to come at him, Nizzolo came too, but they were no match for Gerrans who was simply superb. A beautiful result at a mind-boggling price of 60/1, even the 10/1 he went off at (as low as 11/2!!) was a great price.

Not only that, but he won bonus seconds in the intermediate sprint and Porte was behind an 8" time split at the finish when a little gap formed in the main peloton crossing the line. So Gerro leads McCarthy by 14", Dennis by 26" and Henao, Fernandez, Morabito and Pozzovivo by 28", with Porte 36" down. It looks like it's all over in the GC now too, you would expect Gerro to take bonus seconds on the road in the last two stages and he shouldn't lose more than 10-20" to the winner on Willunga, so should be safe enough. Anything can happen of course, but he can ride defensively now and lock it down. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him right at the front on Willunga again with the form he's in, and if he gets to the finishing straight with one or two others, he probably wins again. 

And so on to the penultimate, and as is often the case, the race-deciding stage on the familiar roads around McLaren Vale, Aldinga Beach and Willunga Hill. It's an exact replica of last year's stage, exactly the same distance at 151.5kms, making it the longest and hardest stage of the race. The stage was won in fine style last year by Richie Porte, landing the odds for us at 5/2, doubling up on his similar victory in 2014. Rohan Dennis did brilliantly to hang on to a charging Porte for as long as he did, and he managed to limit his time loss on the hill to just 9 seconds and hold on to the Ochre jersey and win the overall by just 2 seconds. Ruben Fernandez was 3rd up the hill, with Cadel Evans putting in one last hurrah to take 4th and Tom Dumoulin showed the sort of legs that almost won him the Vuelta a Espana to take 5th. (see below)

After the short neutral zone, it's straight in to the long straight roads that take them past the base of Willunga Hill. They then start on the first of the three circuits of the loop that takes them out to the coast road for 6kms, where they pass the sprint prime twice, and then head back up to McLaren Vale. On the third time they come to Willunga they go up the climb for the first time with just 26kms to go. It's a long run to the KOM points of the day for the breakaway riders looking to mop them up, as Jack Bobridge found out last year. 

The first time up will probably see some attacks go in chase of the early breakaway and the likes of BMC, Orica and Sky will look to make this as hard a finish to the stage as possible, but the real action will come on the last lap. There will be a scrap at the bottom of the climb to get team leaders and GC contenders in to position and expect the likes of Sky, BMC, Tinkoff and OGE to drill it hard again at the bottom to thin the peloton out and set up their main GC men. Willunga Hill is 3kms long at an average of 7%, starting at the big gum tree on the left hand side of the road. The first part of the climb is the steepest, averaging over 8%, with parts over 10%.

After that the road settles down a little bit to average around 6% as it winds its way up the hill at a pretty steady gradient. The locals know they have reached the top when they pass the large crown painted on the road. It doesn't really ease up until the last 50m when they turn left on to the finishing straight. Richie Porte took the KOM on Strava on the climb last year (or Pitchie R as he calls himself on Strava), flying up the hill in just 6'39", a full 41" faster than the next fastest time on Strava, Jack Haig's. 

Update - 20:30: I am so looking forward to this stage, it should be great. BMC have to attack, Dennis is 26" down, Porte is 36" back. The most likely scenario for those guys I think is that Porte will absolutely drill it for as long as he can with Dennis in his wheel, hoping to drop Gerrans and then hope Dennis can attack away from a heavily thinned out peloton. When Porte presses the accelerator on this climb, there are very few can hang on to his wheel. But 19" is a lot to make up on this finish, especially considering Gerro may take 2nd or 3rd bonus seconds behind (and some on the road too possibly).

Tinkoff have to attack - Jay McCarthy has the best chance of toppling Gerrans - he's only 14" down, so a 10" win with the 10" bonus puts him level at worst with Gerro (if Gerro sprints to second place). McCarthy has looked very strong and full of confidence, but it's been a hard, tough week and pretty stressful for him. Can he continue to raise his game one more time when the pressure is really on? We can only wait and see, but I expect him to be right at the front in the last 3kms. He seems to be showing his lack of experience though sometimes, pulling at the front when he doesn't need to, chasing guys down when he could let others do it. He'll need to play this one a lot better tactically, for example he will need to sit tight as long as possible instead of pulling at the front and chasing everything. He will need to muscle in on Dennis's wheel and if Dennis attacks, McCarthy needs to follow and counter-punch. Easier said than done right. 

Sky need to attack - Sergio Henao looks one of the few guys who could overturn Gerro's lead, he seemed full of fight and looked strong on the Corkscrew climb two days ago. But he never pressed on, he never got far enough away. Woods was able to stay with him easily and it looked like he ran out of gas. Not only did the others start coming back at him on the climb, but he didn't have the power to hold on to their lead on the descent. Also, Corkscrew was more his type of climb, with steeper gradients than Willunga. Willunga is tough, but is a bit of a grinders climb, if you dig in, in a biggish gear, you won't lose a lot of time to the sprightly, light climbers like Henao. 

But Henao is 28" back, so even with a 10" time bonus he will need to win by 19" from Gerrans, with Gerrans out of the placings. The gaps at the finish on Willunga are never very big though - last year it was 9" from Porte to Dennis, with Evans, Dumoulin and Fernandez just 16" behind. In 2014 Porte won by 10" from Ulissi and Gerrans, with Gesink, Impey and Evans just 14" back. When Gerrans won in 2013, the gap to Moreno was 10", Izagirre at 12" and a small group at 16". In fact in all the stages that have finished on Willunga, 10" has been the biggest winning margin. With Gerro in the form he is in, I can't see him losing more than 15" if he does struggle for some reason. Gerro has to be strong favourite now to hang on and win the overall, I'd made him about a 1/3 shot, Paddy Power are offering him at 8/13, which seems big considering they made him favourite to win the stage at 21/10.

And based on his form this week and the fact he has won here before, plus the fact that Porte may not be going for the win here, Simon Gerrans looks a bet to make it a hat-trick of wins and wrap up the race. It was interesting to hear him say in the Backstage Pass videos that he has never worked so hard in his pre-season than he did this year, he wanted to continue the work he was doing towards the end of last season and come in to this season flying. It's clearly working as he is bossing this race so far. The mood in the camp is buzzing and they are all up for it. The danger to him would be the BMC 1-2, but I don't think he has much to fear there.

Another issue would be if the likes of BMC, Tinkoff and Sky start attacking on the penultimate passage of Willunga in an effort to break things up and tire him out, to try to isolate him, which they said they would do. But again, I think he'll be ok. If a long range break manages to make it, it will help him too, as they can take the bonus seconds away from McCarthy and Henao and Dennis. What I think will happen though is that Gerro will be able to cover most moves, he only has to ride defensively, he doesn't need to attack. If he does cover all the moves and comes to that flatter run to the line with the main protagonists, he wins again.

Looking around now though as more bookies come out, prices are all over the place again. Henao is 5/2 favourite with Bet365 and Corals (too short), 4/1 with PP, still a bit short. Gerrans is now available at 11/2 with Ladbrokes while PP have pushed him out to 11/4 from 21/10. One rider the bookies are pretty close about is Michael Woods, who is around 6/1 and he is a conundrum... I'm guessing guys are jumping on the bandwagon and the bookies aren't taking any chances, because of the ride he put in on Corkscrew the other day.. But the guy is a relative unknown who is riding in the Pro Tour for the first time at the age of 29, and now he's 7/1 to take out the likes of Porte, Dennis, Gerrans, Ulissi and so on? Yes, he was impressive, yes, he was all over Henao, but I can't see him getting away on his own and when it came to the sprint, he was comfortably beaten by Gerrans and Dennis.

Diego Ulissi is 10/1 and that's not interesting me either. If he was really at the top of his game he'd have beaten McCarthy on Stage 2. He was also not able to go with the Gerrans group on Stage 3 and was so far back at the finish yesterday he got caught in that split that cost some 8". I don't think he is 100% yet and I don't see him winning this. Pozzovivo, Valls, Luis Leon Sanchez, I don't think any of them will be able to win it. Ruben Fernandez is still in with a shout of the race too, sitting at the same time as Henao, 28" back. He finished 3rd here last year, 16" behind Porte, he was unable to go with Porte and Dennis, but composed himself and paced it with Pozzovivo for a while before attacking away from him. Hard to see him going faster than Porte, Dennis and Gerrans and the like this time around.

Any long-shot outsiders? Nathan Haas maybe, but he has been disappointing this week, the heat has got to him it seems. Julian Arredondo crashed twice this week, I don't think he'll be getting involved. Louis Meintjes is riding for Ulissi this week, so I can't see him attacking, he hasn't been riding very well at all this week. Tiago Machado could go ok on this climb, he was 7th here last year and 12th overall in the GC, he might slip away if the GC guys stall and start playing cat and mouse, at 100/1 he's worth a small bet.

Overall though, it's hard to make a call for any of them with confidence - Dennis could ride away after a softening up job by Porte. Porte could attack and the rest look at each other waiting for Gerro to chase and Porte could stay away. It could come down to a sprint, which Gerro will win, and we cold see Woods and Henao fighting it out again.. I'm leaning towards Gerrans sitting and watching and covering everything and a group of maybe 5-6 coming to the finish and Gerro outsprinting them to take the hat-trick. I'm just reinvesting profit from the 60/1 last night. Either way, I'm hoping and pretty confident that Gerro can hang on and land the win for us, I'm hoping JayMc can also land the each-way money with a top 3 placing for us at 66/1.

It should be a hell of a finish.  

Recommendations:

Simon Gerrans - 1pt win at 11/2 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Tiago Machado at 100/1 with PP

Matchbets

Rohan Dennis to beat Porte - 1pt at 11/8

Machado to beat Taaramae - 3.5pts at 4/7 

 

Stage 6 

King William Road, Adelaide, 90kms

Sunday 24th January 

Porte surprised on Willunga, but not really surprised considering he won here for the last two years running. It looks like Dennis knew he was on a bad day or was feeling tired, as he made a burst with about 2kms to go to stretch things out, one last burst to help Porte's chances. He quickly went backwards, but Porte surged forwards. It looked like Henao and Woods would get him but first Woods faded and eventually Henao as Porte just kept accelerating away. 4/1 or so for the stage looks a great bet now in hindsight, and Porte's surge got his each-way backers just out of jail as he climed to 2nd place. Unfortunately McCarthy was the one who lost out, slipping to 4th, busting our 66/1 each-way unfortunately. Gerrans though did enough, he has the GC nailed now and we can collect on that. 

I can't believe what price Henao was backed down to, 2/1 was just insane. I laid a point at 3.1 on Betfair before the race, it was just too short to resist. With Machado comforably winning his MB it meant a small profit on the stage. 

The race finishes with its traditional criterium around Adelaide with 20 laps of a 4.5km circuit. Wouter Wippert won this stage last year for Drapac, capping a good week for the local Australian team. He beat the newly crowned Australian champion Heinrich Haussler and Boris Valée of Lotto Soudal. André Greipel won the stage in 2014 in a sprint finish after a great lead out by his Lotto-Belisol team to take his career wins in the TDU to an impressive 18. 

It'll almost certainly come down to a sprint finish again with what should be a great battle amongst the sprinters here. Ewan is the 8/15 favourite for the stage, and although I backed five horses in a five-fold today that were all odds-on, I am reluctant to reinvest that on Ewan at such a short price. He probably will win - OGE have been very good this week and with Impey and the boys to lead him out, it should be a repeat of the People's Choice and stage 1. It could complete a memorable week for the Australians as they will have won every one of the six stages, something that has only happened once before in 2002, when Rogers, McEwan and Evans won all the stages. 

Giacomo NIzzolo could go close again but he doesn't seem to be at the top of his game yet and a flat finish doesn't help him, he's a bit short to be taking on at 6/1 when they are only paying 1/5 the odds. Wippert looks a big price at 9/1 with Paddy Power to repeat his victory from last year and Cannondale will be going all out to try to get something out of the race after coming close with Bevin and Woods. He finished 3rd on stage one, I think he could come close to the top 3 again, but the 9/1 with PP is win only, they haven't bothered their arse to price an each-way market, basically hanging up the 'CLOSED' sign on the shop. I prefer him over Kump at the same price, Kump finished dead last on stage 4, something that worries me. 

Mark Renshaw, Adam Blythe and Ben Swift will be the next wave I think but it will be a surprise to me if either of them can win it, Swift is probably the most likely of the three to possibly break in to the top 3. 

Like in San Luis, it's not a stage to get carried away with but Wippert could nab another podium spot, but you'll have to take either the 5/1 with William Hill who are paying 1/4 the odds for 3 places, or 13/2 with Ladbrokes who are paying 2 places, or 13/2 with Bet365 who are paying 1/5 the odds for 3 places. I'm going to take the 3 places with Bet365 as the return is better. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Wippert at 13/2 with Bet365

 

Match Bets

2pts on the following treble - Ewan to beat Wippert, Nizzolo to beat Renshaw and Martinelli to beat De Kort - it pays 6/4